M Strijker1, J W Chen1, T H Mungroop1, N B Jamieson2,3, C H van Eijck4, E W Steyerberg5, J W Wilmink6, B Groot Koerkamp4, H W van Laarhoven6, M G Besselink1. 1. Department of Surgery, Cancer Centre Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands. 2. West of Scotland Pancreatic Unit, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK. 3. Institute of Cancer Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK. 4. Department of Surgery, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands. 5. Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands. 6. Department of Medical Oncology, Cancer Centre Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: As more therapeutic options for pancreatic cancer are becoming available, there is a need to improve outcome prediction to support shared decision-making. A systematic evaluation of prediction models in resectable pancreatic cancer is lacking. METHODS: This systematic review followed the CHARMS and PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library databases were searched up to 11 October 2017. Studies reporting development or validation of models predicting survival in resectable pancreatic cancer were included. Models without performance measures, reviews, abstracts or more than 10 per cent of patients not undergoing resection in postoperative models were excluded. Studies were appraised critically. RESULTS: After screening 4403 studies, 22 (44 319 patients) were included. There were 19 model development/update studies and three validation studies, altogether concerning 21 individual models. Two studies were deemed at low risk of bias. Eight models were developed for the preoperative setting and 13 for the postoperative setting. Most frequently included parameters were differentiation grade (11 of 21 models), nodal status (8 of 21) and serum albumin (7 of 21). Treatment-related variables were included in three models. The C-statistic/area under the curve values ranged from 0·57 to 0·90. Based on study design, validation methods and the availability of web-based calculators, two models were identified as the most promising. CONCLUSION: Although a large number of prediction models for resectable pancreatic cancer have been reported, most are at high risk of bias and have not been validated externally. This overview of prognostic factors provided practical recommendations that could help in designing easily applicable prediction models to support shared decision-making.
BACKGROUND: As more therapeutic options for pancreatic cancer are becoming available, there is a need to improve outcome prediction to support shared decision-making. A systematic evaluation of prediction models in resectable pancreatic cancer is lacking. METHODS: This systematic review followed the CHARMS and PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library databases were searched up to 11 October 2017. Studies reporting development or validation of models predicting survival in resectable pancreatic cancer were included. Models without performance measures, reviews, abstracts or more than 10 per cent of patients not undergoing resection in postoperative models were excluded. Studies were appraised critically. RESULTS: After screening 4403 studies, 22 (44 319 patients) were included. There were 19 model development/update studies and three validation studies, altogether concerning 21 individual models. Two studies were deemed at low risk of bias. Eight models were developed for the preoperative setting and 13 for the postoperative setting. Most frequently included parameters were differentiation grade (11 of 21 models), nodal status (8 of 21) and serum albumin (7 of 21). Treatment-related variables were included in three models. The C-statistic/area under the curve values ranged from 0·57 to 0·90. Based on study design, validation methods and the availability of web-based calculators, two models were identified as the most promising. CONCLUSION: Although a large number of prediction models for resectable pancreatic cancer have been reported, most are at high risk of bias and have not been validated externally. This overview of prognostic factors provided practical recommendations that could help in designing easily applicable prediction models to support shared decision-making.
Authors: Ali Belkouz; Stijn Van Roessel; Marin Strijker; Jacob L van Dam; Lois Daamen; Lydia G van der Geest; Alberto Balduzzi; Andrea Benedetti Cacciaguerra; Susan van Dieren; Quintus Molenaar; Bas Groot Koerkamp; Joanne Verheij; Elizabeth Van Eycken; Giuseppe Malleo; Mohammed Abu Hilal; Martijn G H van Oijen; Ivan Borbath; Chris Verslype; Cornelis J A Punt; Marc G Besselink; Heinz-Josef Klümpen Journal: Br J Cancer Date: 2022-01-17 Impact factor: 9.075
Authors: Anouk E J Latenstein; Stijn van Roessel; Lydia G M van der Geest; Bert A Bonsing; Cornelis H C Dejong; Bas Groot Koerkamp; Ignace H J T de Hingh; Marjolein Y V Homs; Joost M Klaase; Valery Lemmens; I Quintus Molenaar; Ewout W Steyerberg; Martijn W J Stommel; Olivier R Busch; Casper H J van Eijck; Hanneke W M van Laarhoven; Johanna W Wilmink; Marc G Besselink Journal: Ann Surg Oncol Date: 2020-02-12 Impact factor: 5.344
Authors: Jennifer B Permuth; Ashley Clark Daly; Daniel Jeong; Jung W Choi; Miles E Cameron; Dung-Tsa Chen; Jamie K Teer; Tracey E Barnett; Jiannong Li; Benjamin D Powers; Nagalakshmi B Kumar; Thomas J George; Karla N Ali; Tri Huynh; Shraddha Vyas; Clement K Gwede; Vani N Simmons; Pamela J Hodul; Estrella M Carballido; Andrew R Judge; Jason B Fleming; Nipun Merchant; Jose G Trevino Journal: Cancer Med Date: 2019-05-09 Impact factor: 4.452