Parke Wilde1, Yue Huang1, Stephen Sy1, Shafika Abrahams-Gessel1, Thiago Veiga Jardim1, Robert Paarlberg1, Dariush Mozaffarian1, Renata Micha1, Thomas Gaziano1. 1. Parke Wilde, Yue Huang, Dariush Mozaffarian, and Renata Micha are with the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, MA. Stephen Sy, Shafika Abrahams-Gessel, Thiago Veiga Jardim, and Thomas Gaziano are with the Center for Health Decision Science, Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston. T. Veiga Jardim and T. Gaziano are also with the Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston. Robert Paarlberg is with the Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, MA.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To estimate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of a national penny-per-ounce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, overall and with stratified costs and benefits for 9 distinct stakeholder groups. METHODS: We used a validated microsimulation model (CVD PREDICT) to estimate cardiovascular disease reductions, quality-adjusted life years gained, and cost-effectiveness for US adults aged 35 to 85 years, evaluating full and partial consumer price pass-through. RESULTS: From health care and societal perspectives, the SSB tax was highly cost-saving. When we evaluated health gains, taxes paid, and out-of-pocket health care savings for 6 distinct consumer categories, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from $20 247 to $42 662 per quality-adjusted life year for 100% price pass-through (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios similar with 50% pass-through). For the beverage industry, net costs were $0.92 billion with 100% pass-through (largely tax-implementation costs) and $49.75 billion with 50% pass-through (largely because of partial industry coverage of the tax). For government, the SSB tax positively affected both tax revenues and health care cost savings. CONCLUSIONS: This stratified analysis improves on unitary approaches, illuminating distinct costs and benefits for stakeholders with political influence over SSB tax decisions.
OBJECTIVES: To estimate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of a national penny-per-ounce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, overall and with stratified costs and benefits for 9 distinct stakeholder groups. METHODS: We used a validated microsimulation model (CVD PREDICT) to estimate cardiovascular disease reductions, quality-adjusted life years gained, and cost-effectiveness for US adults aged 35 to 85 years, evaluating full and partial consumer price pass-through. RESULTS: From health care and societal perspectives, the SSB tax was highly cost-saving. When we evaluated health gains, taxes paid, and out-of-pocket health care savings for 6 distinct consumer categories, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from $20 247 to $42 662 per quality-adjusted life year for 100% price pass-through (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios similar with 50% pass-through). For the beverage industry, net costs were $0.92 billion with 100% pass-through (largely tax-implementation costs) and $49.75 billion with 50% pass-through (largely because of partial industry coverage of the tax). For government, the SSB tax positively affected both tax revenues and health care cost savings. CONCLUSIONS: This stratified analysis improves on unitary approaches, illuminating distinct costs and benefits for stakeholders with political influence over SSB tax decisions.
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