| Literature DB >> 30549200 |
Senthold Asseng1, Pierre Martre2, Andrea Maiorano2, Reimund P Rötter3,4, Garry J O'Leary5, Glenn J Fitzgerald6,7, Christine Girousse8, Rosella Motzo9, Francesco Giunta9, M Ali Babar10, Matthew P Reynolds11, Ahmed M S Kheir12, Peter J Thorburn13, Katharina Waha13, Alex C Ruane14, Pramod K Aggarwal15, Mukhtar Ahmed16,17, Juraj Balkovič18,19, Bruno Basso20,21, Christian Biernath22, Marco Bindi23, Davide Cammarano24, Andrew J Challinor25,26, Giacomo De Sanctis27, Benjamin Dumont28, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei29,30, Elias Fereres31, Roberto Ferrise23, Margarita Garcia-Vila31, Sebastian Gayler32, Yujing Gao1, Heidi Horan13, Gerrit Hoogenboom1,33, R César Izaurralde34,35, Mohamed Jabloun36, Curtis D Jones34, Belay T Kassie1, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum37, Christian Klein22, Ann-Kristin Koehler25, Bing Liu1,38, Sara Minoli39, Manuel Montesino San Martin40, Christoph Müller39, Soora Naresh Kumar41, Claas Nendel37, Jørgen Eivind Olesen36, Taru Palosuo42, John R Porter40,43,42, Eckart Priesack22, Dominique Ripoche44, Mikhail A Semenov45, Claudio Stöckle16, Pierre Stratonovitch45, Thilo Streck32, Iwan Supit46, Fulu Tao47,48, Marijn Van der Velde49, Daniel Wallach50, Enli Wang51, Heidi Webber29,37, Joost Wolf52, Liujun Xiao38, Zhao Zhang53, Zhigan Zhao51,54, Yan Zhu38, Frank Ewert29,37.
Abstract
Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.Entities:
Keywords: climate change adaptation; climate change impact; food security; grain protein; wheat
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Year: 2018 PMID： 30549200 DOI： 10.1111/gcb.14481
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Glob Chang Biol ISSN： 1354-1013 Impact factor: 10.863