A Dynamical Systems Model of Intrauterine Fetal Growth.

The underlying mechanisms for how maternal perinatal obesity and intrauterine environment influence fetal development are not well understood and thus require further understanding. In this paper, energy balance concepts are used to develop a comprehensive dynamical systems model for fetal growth that illustrates how maternal factors (energy intake and physical activity) influence fetal weight and related components (fat mass, fat-free mass, and placental volume) over time. The model is estimated from intensive measurements of fetal weight and placental volume obtained as part of Healthy Mom Zone (HMZ), a novel intervention for managing gestational weight gain in obese/overweight women. The overall result of the modeling procedure is a parsimonious system of equations that reliably predicts fetal weight gain and birth weight based on a sensible number of assessments. This model can inform clinical care recommendations as well as how adaptive interventions, such as HMZ, can influence fetal growth and birth outcomes.