Connecting Child Maltreatment Risk With Crime and Neighborhood Disadvantage Across Time and Place: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis.

Child maltreatment is a major public health problem. Although maltreatment rates vary over time and are influenced by neighborhood characteristics, the unique effects of crime and disadvantage on risk are not well understood. This study utilized a Bayesian spatiotemporal approach to examine risk factors for substantiated child abuse and neglect over a 9-year period across zip codes in Davidson County, TN. Risk of child sexual and physical abuse decreased from 2008 to 2016. In contrast, risk of child neglect increased from 2011 to 2014, followed by a rapid decrease in risk. Whereas higher percentages of families living in poverty were associated with higher risk of all maltreatment subtypes, higher unemployment rates were uniquely associated with risk of child neglect. Crime rates were positively associated with risk of child physical and sexual abuse but not neglect. Results have implications for tailoring prevention strategies according to geographic area and maltreatment subtype.