| Literature DB >> 30407738 |
Qiaozhi Guo1, Zhiqiang Dong2, Weilin Zeng3, Wenjun Ma3, Danyang Zhao1, Xin Sun1, Sitang Gong1, Jianpeng Xiao3, Tiegang Li2, Wensui Hu2.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Influenza seriously affects the health of children, yet little evidence is available on the association between meteorological factors and the occurrence of influenza among children in subtropical regions. The current study aimed to explore the effects of meteorological factors on influenza among children in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in China.Entities:
Keywords: Children; Influenza; distributed lag nonlinear model; meteorological factors
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 30407738 PMCID: PMC6379639 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12617
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Influenza Other Respir Viruses ISSN: 1750-2640 Impact factor: 4.380
Figure 1Geographical location of the study area in China
Pearson correlation coefficients matrix of meteorological factors on influenza cases of children in Guangzhou, 2013‐2017
| Variables | Influenza frequency | Maximum temperature (°C) | Mean temperature (°C) | Minimum temperature (°C) | Relative humidity (%) | Precipitation (mm) | Wind velocity (m/s) | Atmospheric pressure (hPa) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Influenza frequency | 1 | |||||||
| Maximum temperature(°C) | −0.02 | 1 | ||||||
| Mean temperature(°C) | −0.02 | 0.95 | 1 | |||||
| Minimum temperature (°C) | 0.00 | 0.87 | 0.96 | 1 | ||||
| Relative humidity (%) | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.42 | 1 | |||
| Daily precipitation (mm) | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 0.39 | 1 | ||
| Wind velocity(m/s) | −0.04 | −0.36 | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.30 | −0.03 | 1 | |
| Atmospheric pressure(hPa) | −0.02 | −0.79 | −0.86 | −0.87 | −0.42 | −0.27 | 0.23 | 1 |
| Sun (h) | −0.14 | 0.42 | 0.24 | 0.05 | −0.53 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.06 |
P < 0.05.
Daily meteorological conditions and influenza cases of children in Guangzhou, 2013‐2017
| Variables | Mean | SD | Min. | P25 | P50 | P75 | Max. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily influenza frequency | 32.22 | 60.52 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 497 |
| Maximum temperature(°C) | 26.71 | 6.29 | 5.50 | 22.20 | 27.80 | 32.00 | 38.30 |
| Mean temperature (°C) | 22.34 | 6.17 | 3.60 | 17.50 | 23.80 | 27.50 | 33.50 |
| Minimum temperature (°C) | 18.84 | 6.27 | 1.20 | 13.78 | 20.60 | 24.30 | 28.40 |
| Relative humidity (%) | 78.04 | 12.09 | 26.00 | 72.00 | 80.00 | 86.00 | 100.00 |
| Daily precipitation (mm) | 6.46 | 16.39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.10 | 164.10 |
| Wind velocity (m/s) | 2.28 | 0.99 | 0.60 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 2.80 | 7.50 |
| Atmospheric pressure (hPa) | 1004.97 | 6.73 | 985.3 | 999.80 | 1004.60 | 1010.30 | 1027.40 |
| Sun (h) | 4.27 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 | 3.80 | 8.10 | 12.00 |
Figure 2The time series of daily meteorological factors and daily influenza cases in Guangzhou, 2013‐2017 (freq: Daily influenza cases, p: Atmospheric pressure (hPa), pre: daily precipitation(mm), rh: Relative humidity (%), tm: Mean temperature (°C), t max: Maximum temperature (°C), t min: Minimum temperature (°C), Ws: Wind velocity (m/s))
Figure 3The estimated overall effects of mean temperature, relative humidity, and atmospheric pressure on children influenza cases over the corresponding lag days. Confounding factors included time trend, DOW, and public holidays. The red lines represent mean relative risks, and gray regions represent 95% confidence intervals. The median value of each meteorological factor (mean temperature: 23.8°C, humidity: 80%, pressure:1005 hPa) is as a reference level
Figure 4The estimated extreme effects at the 95th and the 5th percentile of mean temperature, relative humidity, and atmospheric pressure at different lag days on children influenza cases. The median value of each meteorological factor (mean temperature: 23.8°C, humidity: 80%, pressure: 1005 hPa) is as a reference level. The red lines are mean relative risks, and gray regions are 95% confidence intervals
The cumulative effects of meteorological factors on influenza cases of children by sex and age
| Variables | Mean temperature (°C) | Relative humidity (%) | Atmospheric pressure (hPa) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumulative extreme hot effect (95% CI) | Cumulative extreme cold effect (95% CI) | Cumulative extreme humid effect (95% CI) | Cumulative extreme dry effect (95% CI) | Cumulative extreme High‐Pressure effect (95% CI) | Cumulative extreme Low‐Pressure effect (95% CI) | |
| All age children | 0.99 (0.92, 1.06) | 1.63 (1.41, 1.88) | 1.45 (1.39, 1.51) | 1.28 (1.11, 1.47) | 1.11 (1.02, 1.20) | 0.58 (0.50, 0.66) |
| Sex | ||||||
| Male | 0.97 (0.90, 1.05) | 1.62 (1.39, 1.89) | 1.44 (1.38, 1.50) | 1.32 (1.13, 1.53) | 1.10 (1.00, 1.20) | 0.57 (0.49, 0.66) |
| Female | 1.01 (0.93, 1.10) | 1.64 (1.39, 1.94) | 1.47 (1.40, 1.54) | 1.22 (1.04, 1.43) | 1.12 (1.02, 1.23) | 0.59 (0.50, 0.69) |
| Age | ||||||
| 0‐3 y | 0.93 (0.86, 1.01) | 1.51 (1.27, 1.79) | 1.43 (1.36, 1.50) | 1.15 (0.95, 1.39) | 1.16 (1.04, 1.29) | 0.52 (0.45, 0.60) |
| 4‐6 y | 0.92 (0.84, 1.00) | 1.45 (1.21, 1.73) | 1.39 (1.32, 1.47) | 1.39 (1.18, 1.64) | 1.09 (0.99, 1.20) | 0.60 (0.50, 0.72) |
| 7‐14 y | 1.09 (0.95, 1.26) | 1.82 (1.43, 2.32) | 1.55 (1.44, 1.68) | 1.38 (1.09, 1.75) | 1.06 (0.92, 1.23) | 0.77 (0.55, 1.07) |
| 15‐17 y | 1.08 (0.83, 1.41) | 2.92 (1.59, 5.35) | 1.29 (1.09, 1.54) | 0.73 (0.35, 1.54) | 1.08 (0.74, 1.59) | 0.74 (0.39, 1.39) |
The effects of an extreme high value (hot effect, humid effect and high‐pressure effect) are presented by the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of the meteorological factors on children influenza cases by comparing the 95th to the 90th percentile of their own effect (for all age children, the reference level of hot effect was 29.2°C, humid effect 92%, high‐pressure effect 1014.10 hPa). The maximum lag day of 10 d was selected for hot effect, of 27 d for humid effect, of 15 d for high‐pressure effect.
The effects of an extreme low value (cold effect, dry effect and low‐pressure effect) are presented by the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of the meteorological factors on children influenza cases by comparing the 5th to the 10th percentile of their own (for all age children, the reference level of cold effect was 12.96°C, dry effect 63%, low‐pressure effect 996.60 hPa). The maximum lag day of 27 d was selected for cold effect, of 20 d for dry effect and of 20 d for low‐pressure effect.