Qiong Wu1, Wen-Jie Wang2, Yue-Qing Huang3, Shi-Ying Fang4, Yong-Jun Guan5. 1. Department of Intervention and Vascular Surgery, Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Suzhou Cancer Medical Center, Suzhou, Jiangsu, 215001, China. 2. Department of Radiation Oncology, Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Suzhou Cancer Medical Center, Suzhou, Jiangsu, 215001, China. 3. Department of General Practice, Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Suzhou Cancer Medical Center, Suzhou, Jiangsu, 215001, China. 4. Department of General Surgery, West Anhui Health Vocational College, Luan, Anhui, 237000, China. 5. Department of General Surgery, Yan Da International Hospital, Langfang, Hebei, 065000, China. Electronic address: yongjunguan@yeah.net.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop and validate nomograms for individual risk prediction in patients with liver-only colorectal metastases (CRLM). METHODS: Histologically confirmed CRLM diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were analysed from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to obtain independent prognostic factors to build nomograms for predicting 1- and 3-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. RESULTS: A total of 9615 patients with CRLM were included in the study. A nomogram predicting OS was constructed according to 9 independent clinicopathological factors. A nomogram predicting CSS was constructed based on the same 9 factors. The C-indexes of the nomograms were significantly better than the TNM staging system (7th edition) in both sets for predicting both OS and CSS. The calibration plots displayed an optimal agreement between the predictive results and the actual observed outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed nomograms can help clinicians calculate the probability in patients with CRLM.
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop and validate nomograms for individual risk prediction in patients with liver-only colorectal metastases (CRLM). METHODS: Histologically confirmed CRLM diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were analysed from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to obtain independent prognostic factors to build nomograms for predicting 1- and 3-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. RESULTS: A total of 9615 patients with CRLM were included in the study. A nomogram predicting OS was constructed according to 9 independent clinicopathological factors. A nomogram predicting CSS was constructed based on the same 9 factors. The C-indexes of the nomograms were significantly better than the TNM staging system (7th edition) in both sets for predicting both OS and CSS. The calibration plots displayed an optimal agreement between the predictive results and the actual observed outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed nomograms can help clinicians calculate the probability in patients with CRLM.
Authors: Na Wang; Jin Yang; Jun Lyu; Qingqing Liu; Hairong He; Jie Liu; Li Li; Xuequn Ren; Zhendong Li Journal: BMC Cancer Date: 2020-06-01 Impact factor: 4.430