Takao Watanabe1, Yoshio Tokumoto1, Kouji Joko2, Kojiro Michitaka3, Norio Horiike4, Yoshinori Tanaka5, Fujimasa Tada6, Yoshiyasu Kisaka7, Seiji Nakanishi8, Kazuhiko Yamauchi9, Atsushi Yukimoto1, Masashi Hirooka1, Masanori Abe1, Yoichi Hiasa1. 1. Department of Gastroenterology and Metabology, Ehime University Graduate School of Medicine, Toon, Japan. 2. Center for Liver-Biliary-Pancreatic Diseases, Matsuyama Red Cross Hospital, Matsuyama, Japan. 3. Department of Gastroenterology, Ehime Prefectural Central Hospital, Matsuyama, Japan. 4. Department of Gastroenterology, Saiseikai Imabari Hospital, Imabari, Japan. 5. Department of Gastroenterology, Matsuyama Shimin Hospital, Matsuyama, Japan. 6. Department of Internal Medicine, Saiseikai Matsuyama Hospital, Matsuyama, Japan. 7. Department of Gastroenterology, Uwajima City Hospital, Uwajima, Japan. 8. Department of Gastroenterology, Ehime Prefectural Imabari Hospital, Imabari, Japan. 9. Department of Gastroenterology, National Hospital Organization Ehime Medical Center, Toon, Japan.
Abstract
AIM: The predictors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment were investigated. METHODS: A total of 1174 patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection were treated with DAA therapy (sofosbuvir and ledipasvir [n = 615], sofosbuvir and ribavirin [n = 380], and daclatasvir and asunaprevir [n = 179]) and achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). The HCC development rate and the factors that might contribute to the development of HCC after the end of DAA treatment were analyzed. RESULTS: During the median observation period of 537 days, HCC developed in 33 cases. The incidence of HCC was 1.9%, 3.2%, and 4.1% at 1, 1.5, and 2 years after the end of DAA therapy, respectively. Multivariate analysis with pre- and post-treatment factors identified the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.021-1.178; P = 0.011) and post-treatment α-fetoprotein (AFP) (HR = 1.11; 95% CI, 1.054-1.172; P < 0.001) as independent factors that contributed to the development of HCC after DAA therapy. Using these identified parameters, a new scoring system (0 to 2 points) was established. Patients in the high-score group (2 points) could be identified as having a significantly higher risk of HCC development, and the respective 1- and 2-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 6.1% and 14.4%. CONCLUSIONS: A high FIB-4 index and a high post-treatment AFP at the end of DAA treatment were the independent predictors for developing HCC after DAA treatment. For patients with these risk factors, extra attention to the possibility of HCC development is needed.
AIM: The predictors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment were investigated. METHODS: A total of 1174 patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection were treated with DAA therapy (sofosbuvir and ledipasvir [n = 615], sofosbuvir and ribavirin [n = 380], and daclatasvir and asunaprevir [n = 179]) and achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). The HCC development rate and the factors that might contribute to the development of HCC after the end of DAA treatment were analyzed. RESULTS: During the median observation period of 537 days, HCC developed in 33 cases. The incidence of HCC was 1.9%, 3.2%, and 4.1% at 1, 1.5, and 2 years after the end of DAA therapy, respectively. Multivariate analysis with pre- and post-treatment factors identified the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.021-1.178; P = 0.011) and post-treatment α-fetoprotein (AFP) (HR = 1.11; 95% CI, 1.054-1.172; P < 0.001) as independent factors that contributed to the development of HCC after DAA therapy. Using these identified parameters, a new scoring system (0 to 2 points) was established. Patients in the high-score group (2 points) could be identified as having a significantly higher risk of HCC development, and the respective 1- and 2-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 6.1% and 14.4%. CONCLUSIONS: A high FIB-4 index and a high post-treatment AFP at the end of DAA treatment were the independent predictors for developing HCC after DAA treatment. For patients with these risk factors, extra attention to the possibility of HCC development is needed.