| Literature DB >> 35822118 |
Toshifumi Tada1, Masayuki Kurosaki2, Nobuharu Tamaki2, Yutaka Yasui2, Nami Mori3, Keiji Tsuji3, Chitomi Hasebe4, Koji Joko5, Takehiro Akahane6, Koichiro Furuta7, Haruhiko Kobashi8, Hideki Fujii9, Toru Ishii10, Hiroyuki Marusawa11, Masahiko Kondo12, Yuji Kojima13, Hideo Yoshida14, Yasushi Uchida15, Shinichiro Nakamura1, Namiki Izumi2.
Abstract
Background and Aim: To validate a composite predictive model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with advanced liver fibrosis associated with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) who have received direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy and achieved sustained virologic response (SVR).Entities:
Keywords: advanced liver fibrosis; direct‐acting antiviral; general evaluation score; hepatitis C virus; hepatocellular carcinoma; sustained virologic response
Year: 2022 PMID: 35822118 PMCID: PMC9260214 DOI: 10.1002/jgh3.12778
Source DB: PubMed Journal: JGH Open ISSN: 2397-9070
Characteristics of study patients
| GES‐based risk group | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall ( | Low ( | Intermediate ( | High ( |
| |
| Age (years) | 72.3 (66.0–78.0) | 73.0 (66.0–78.0) | 70.4 (61.8–77.4) | 74.0 (67.0–79.0) | 0.001 |
| Sex (female/male) | 746/512 | 486/159 | 68/160 | 192/193 | <0.001 |
| Aspartate aminotransferase (IU/L) | 55 (38–85) | 50 (35–74) | 54 (39–91) | 65 (45–95) | <0.001 |
| Alanine aminotransferase (IU/L) | 48 (28–81) | 43 (25–74) | 50 (30–96) | 53 (33–86) | <0.001 |
| Albumin (g/dL) | 3.9 (3.6–4.2) | 4.1 (3.9–4.3) | 4.0 (3.7–4.1) | 3.5 (3.3–3.6) | <0.001 |
| Total bilirubin (mg/dL) | 0.8 (0.6–1.0) | 0.8 (0.6–1.0) | 0.8 (0.7–1.1) | 0.8 (0.6–1.1) | 0.001 |
| Platelet count (×109/L) | 117 (89–142) | 126 (101–147) | 116 (90–142) | 100 (72–129) | <0.001 |
| α‐fetoprotein (ng/mL) | 7.0 (4.0–13.6) | 5.9 (3.5–9.9) | 7.1 (4.0–14.0) | 10.0 (5.1–25.0) | <0.001 |
| HCV genotype (1/2/both 1 and 2) | 957/299/2 | 482/161/2 | 161/67/0 | 314/71/0 | 0.014 |
| FIB‐4 index | 4.92 (3.86–7.16) | 4.33 (3.62–5.78) | 4.80 (3.91–6.27) | 6.92 (4.81–9.64) | <0.001 |
| Fibrosis stage (F3/F4) | 500/758 | 391/254 | 58/170 | 51/334 | <0.001 |
| GES | 6.0 (4.0–8.0) | 4.0 (2.5–4.0) | 7.5 (6.5–7.5) | 9.0 (8.0–11.5) | <0.001 |
| Developed HCC | 83 | 25 | 16 | 42 | <0.001 |
| Follow‐up duration (months) | 37.9 (17.5–49.1) | 39.9 (17.7–48.9) | 36.1 (15.1–49.6) | 35.4 (18.0–49.5) | 0.522 |
Values are expressed as medians (interquartile range).
FIB‐4, fibrosis‐4; GES, general evaluation score; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; HCV, hepatitis C.
Figure 1Cumulative incidence of HCC. The 12‐, 36‐, and 60‐month cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.7%, 5.3%, and 13.0%, respectively. HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma.
Multivariable analysis of HCC incidence
| HR | 95% CI |
| |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sex (male) | 1.863 | 1.204–2.883 | 0.005 |
| Age (per 1 year) | 1.019 | 0.994–1.044 | 0.146 |
| Fibrosis stage (F4) | 3.199 | 1.696–6.036 | <0.001 |
| Albumin (per 1 g/dL) | 0.489 | 0.288–0.828 | 0.008 |
| α‐fetoprotein (per 1 ng/mL) | 1.002 | 0.999–1.004 | 0.309 |
CI, confidence interval; FIB‐4, fibrosis‐4; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; HR, hazard ratio.
Figure 2Cumulative incidence of HCC based on risk group according to GES. The 12‐, 36‐, and 60‐month cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.5%, 2.5%, and 8.7%, respectively, in the low‐risk group (dotted‐dashed line). The 12‐, 36‐, and 60‐month cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.0%, 7.2%, and 11.4%, respectively, in the intermediate‐risk group (dashed line). The 12‐, 36‐, and 60‐month cumulative incidence of HCC was 1.4%, 9.0%, and 20.6%, respectively, in the high‐risk group (solid line). The incidence of HCC differed significantly by GES‐based risk group (P < 0.001, log‐rank test). GES, general evaluation score; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma. GES: , high‐risk group; , intermediate‐risk group; , low‐risk group.
Figure 3Time‐dependent ROC curves for GES and FIB‐4 index with respect to HCC development. (a) Month 12: The AUROC was 0.685 for GES (solid line) and 0.504 for FIB‐4 index (dashed line). (b) Month 24: The AUROC was 0.695 for GES (solid line) and 0.573 for FIB‐4 index (dashed line). (c) Month 36: The AUROC was 0.708 for GES (solid line) and 0.570 for FIB‐4 index (dashed line). (d) Month 48: The AUROC was 0.671 for GES (solid line) and 0.601 for FIB‐4 index (dashed line). (e) Month 60: The AUROC was 0.682 for GES (solid line) and 0.573 for FIB‐4 index (dashed line). AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; FIB‐4, fibrosis‐4; GES, general evaluation score; ROC, receiver operating characteristic
Figure 4AUROCs for GES and FIB‐4 index with respect to HCC development by months after the start of follow‐up. GES (solid line) had higher predictive power for HCC development than FIB‐4 index (dashed line) over all months. AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; FIB‐4, fibrosis‐4; GES, general evaluation score; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma.
Sensitivity and specificity for predicting HCC development with GES at months 36 and 60 according to time‐dependent ROC analysis
| GES | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month 36 | 6.0 | 77.5 | 53.0 |
| 6.5 | 70.8 | 58.8 | |
| 7.0 | 69.8 | 59.6 | |
| 7.5 | 54.4 | 70.9 | |
| 8.0 | 34.5 | 85.8 | |
| Month 60 | 6.0 | 67.7 | 54.4 |
| 6.5 | 65.0 | 60.8 | |
| 7.0 | 64.3 | 61.6 | |
| 7.5 | 53.0 | 73.1 | |
| 8.0 | 40.2 | 88.8 |
GES, general evaluation score; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; ROC, receiver operating characteristic.