Emilio Romanini1,2, Francesco Decarolis3, Ilaria Luzi4, Gustavo Zanoli5,6, Michele Venosa7, Paola Laricchiuta4, Eugenio Carrani4, Marina Torre5,4. 1. GLOBE, Italian Working Group on Evidence Based Orthopaedics, Rome, Italy. romanini@artrogruppo.it. 2. Artrogruppo, Casa di Cura San Feliciano, Rome, Italy. romanini@artrogruppo.it. 3. Università Bocconi, Milan, Italy. 4. National Centre for Clinical Excellence, Safety and Quality of Care, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy. 5. GLOBE, Italian Working Group on Evidence Based Orthopaedics, Rome, Italy. 6. Casa di Cura Santa Maria Maddalena, Occhiobello, RO, Italy. 7. Artrogruppo, Casa di Cura San Feliciano, Rome, Italy.
Abstract
PURPOSE: Annual rates of knee arthroplasty are increasing in all developed countries, imposing a significant economic and organizational burden; it is crucial to forecast the future need for knee arthroplasty, to assist stakeholders in planning strategies and investments, especially in a country like Italy, with the largest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe. Few epidemiological studies have been performed worldwide to estimate the demand for future knee replacement, and a variety of methods have been proposed. METHODS: We investigated the epidemiology of knee arthroplasty performed in Italy in the last 15 years and projected incidence rates up to the year 2050, utilizing, comparing, and adapting the available methodologies. RESULTS: From 2001 to 2016, 812,639 primary TKA were performed in Italy on patients over 40. The total number of surgeries increased by 262% with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Adopting the best fitting projection method, an increase of 45% in incidence rate is expected for 2050.
PURPOSE: Annual rates of knee arthroplasty are increasing in all developed countries, imposing a significant economic and organizational burden; it is crucial to forecast the future need for knee arthroplasty, to assist stakeholders in planning strategies and investments, especially in a country like Italy, with the largest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe. Few epidemiological studies have been performed worldwide to estimate the demand for future knee replacement, and a variety of methods have been proposed. METHODS: We investigated the epidemiology of knee arthroplasty performed in Italy in the last 15 years and projected incidence rates up to the year 2050, utilizing, comparing, and adapting the available methodologies. RESULTS: From 2001 to 2016, 812,639 primary TKA were performed in Italy on patients over 40. The total number of surgeries increased by 262% with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Adopting the best fitting projection method, an increase of 45% in incidence rate is expected for 2050.
Entities:
Keywords:
Epidemiology; Hospital discharge data; Projections; Total knee arthroplasty
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