Demographic Moderation of the Prediction of Adolescent Alcohol Involvement Trajectories.

Several school- and family-based preventive interventions target and effectively reduce adolescent alcohol misuse. However, whether demographic groups achieve equal success with these interventions is unclear. In particular, most interventions target younger adolescents, and program effectiveness tends to be measured with majority White samples; subgroup analyses are rarely reported. We analyze longitudinal data from a sample of N = 6189 adolescents (40% Black, 60% White; 50% female) in 6th through 12th grade to quantify the degree to which age, race, and gender moderate the associations between seven well-known risk and protective factors (RPFs) that serve as common intervention targets. The RPFs that we study are drawn from social learning theory, problem behavior theory, and social control theory, including individual factors (positive alcohol expectancies and deviant behavior), family context (perceived parental involvement, perceived parent alcohol use, and access to alcohol), and peer context (descriptive and injunctive norms). Multilevel growth models allow us to conduct the demographic subgroup moderation analysis. Results suggest that these well-studied RPFs explain alcohol involvement to varying degrees, but they explain substantially more variation in alcohol involvement by White adolescents compared with Black adolescents. We find differential patterns of significance and of leading predictors of alcohol involvement as a function of age, race, and gender and the interactions thereof. These results indicate that the prevention field needs to better understand the RPFs affecting minority and high school youth in order to provide a stronger basis for alcohol prevention efforts.