Amit Kumar Dutta1, Grace Rebekah2, Sudipta Dhar Chowdhury3, Sajith Kattiparambil Gangadharan3, Yuvaraj Subramani4, Manoj Kumar Sahu5, Reuben Thomas Kurien3, Deepu David3, Ebby George Simon3, Anjilivelil Joseph Joseph3, Viswanath Reddy Donapati6, Ashok Chacko7. 1. Department of Gastroenterology, Christian Medical College and Hospital, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, 632004, India. akdutta1995@gmail.com. 2. Department of Biostatistics, Christian Medical College, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India. 3. Department of Gastroenterology, Christian Medical College and Hospital, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, 632004, India. 4. Molecular Cardiology Unit, Department of Biochemistry, School of Biological Sciences, Madurai Kamaraj University, Madurai, Tamil Nadu, India. 5. Department of Gastroenterology, IMS and SUM Hospital, Bhubaneswar, India. 6. Department of Gastroenterology, Yashoda Hospital, Secunderabad, India. 7. Institute of Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, The Madras Medical Mission, Chennai, India.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The guidelines for performing endoscopy in dyspeptic patients based on clinical parameters alone have shown variable performance, and there is a need for better prediction tools. AIM: We aimed to prospectively develop and validate a simple clinical-cum-laboratory test-based scoring model to identify dyspeptic patients with high risk of upper gastrointestinal malignancy (UGIM). METHODS: Adult patients with dyspeptic symptoms were prospectively recruited over 5 years. Clinical details including alarm features were recorded, and blood tests for hemoglobin and albumin were done before endoscopy. The presence of UGIM was the primary outcome. Risk factors for UGIM were assessed, and based on the OR of significant factors, a predictive scoring model was constructed. ROC curve was plotted to identify optimal cutoff score. The model was validated using bootstrapping technique. RESULTS: The study included 2324 patients (41.9 ± 12.8 years; 33.4% females). UGIM was noted in 6.8% patients. The final model had following five positive predictors for UGIM-age > 40 years (OR 3.3, score 1); albumin ≤ 3.5 g% (OR 3.4, score 1); Hb ≤ 11 g% (OR 3.3, score 1); alarm features (OR 5.98, score 2); recent onset of symptoms (OR 8.7, score 3). ROC curve had an impressive AUC of 0.9 (0.88-0.93), and a score of 2 had 92.5% sensitivity in predicting UGIM. Validation by bootstrapping showed zero bias, which further strengthened our model. CONCLUSION: This simple clinical-cum-laboratory test-based model performed very well in identifying dyspeptic patients at risk of UGIM. This can serve as a useful decision-making tool for referral for endoscopy.
BACKGROUND: The guidelines for performing endoscopy in dyspeptic patients based on clinical parameters alone have shown variable performance, and there is a need for better prediction tools. AIM: We aimed to prospectively develop and validate a simple clinical-cum-laboratory test-based scoring model to identify dyspeptic patients with high risk of upper gastrointestinal malignancy (UGIM). METHODS: Adult patients with dyspeptic symptoms were prospectively recruited over 5 years. Clinical details including alarm features were recorded, and blood tests for hemoglobin and albumin were done before endoscopy. The presence of UGIM was the primary outcome. Risk factors for UGIM were assessed, and based on the OR of significant factors, a predictive scoring model was constructed. ROC curve was plotted to identify optimal cutoff score. The model was validated using bootstrapping technique. RESULTS: The study included 2324 patients (41.9 ± 12.8 years; 33.4% females). UGIM was noted in 6.8% patients. The final model had following five positive predictors for UGIM-age > 40 years (OR 3.3, score 1); albumin ≤ 3.5 g% (OR 3.4, score 1); Hb ≤ 11 g% (OR 3.3, score 1); alarm features (OR 5.98, score 2); recent onset of symptoms (OR 8.7, score 3). ROC curve had an impressive AUC of 0.9 (0.88-0.93), and a score of 2 had 92.5% sensitivity in predicting UGIM. Validation by bootstrapping showed zero bias, which further strengthened our model. CONCLUSION: This simple clinical-cum-laboratory test-based model performed very well in identifying dyspeptic patients at risk of UGIM. This can serve as a useful decision-making tool for referral for endoscopy.
Authors: M B Wallace; V L Durkalski; J Vaughan; Y Y Palesch; E D Libby; P S Jowell; N J Nickl; S M Schutz; J W Leung; P B Cotton Journal: Gut Date: 2001-07 Impact factor: 23.059
Authors: N P Breslin; A B Thomson; R J Bailey; P K Blustein; J Meddings; E Lalor; G M VanRosendaal; M J Verhoef; L R Sutherland Journal: Gut Date: 2000-01 Impact factor: 23.059
Authors: Lucas Wauters; Ram Dickman; Vasile Drug; Agata Mulak; Jordi Serra; Paul Enck; Jan Tack; Anna Accarino; Giovanni Barbara; Serhat Bor; Benoit Coffin; Maura Corsetti; Heiko De Schepper; Dan Dumitrascu; Adam Farmer; Guillaume Gourcerol; Goran Hauser; Trygve Hausken; George Karamanolis; Daniel Keszthelyi; Carolin Malagelada; Tomislav Milosavljevic; Jean Muris; Colm O'Morain; Athanassos Papathanasopoulos; Daniel Pohl; Diana Rumyantseva; Giovanni Sarnelli; Edoardo Savarino; Jolien Schol; Arkady Sheptulin; Annemieke Smet; Andreas Stengel; Olga Storonova; Martin Storr; Hans Törnblom; Tim Vanuytsel; Monica Velosa; Marek Waluga; Natalia Zarate; Frank Zerbib Journal: United European Gastroenterol J Date: 2021-04 Impact factor: 4.623