Michael J Donovan1, Gerardo Fernandez2, Richard Scott2, Faisal M Khan2, Jack Zeineh2, Giovanni Koll2, Nataliya Gladoun2, Elizabeth Charytonowicz2, Ash Tewari3, Carlos Cordon-Cardo4. 1. Department of Pathology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mt. Sinai, 1468 Madison Avenue, New York City, NY, 10029, USA. Michael.Donovan@mssm.edu. 2. Department of Pathology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mt. Sinai, 1111 Amsterdam Ave, New York City, NY, 10025, USA. 3. Department of Urology, Sinai Hospital, 1470 Madison Avenue, New York City, NY, 10029, USA. 4. Department of Pathology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mt. Sinai, 1468 Madison Avenue, New York City, NY, 10029, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Postoperative risk assessment remains an important variable in the effective treatment of prostate cancer. There is an unmet clinical need for a test with the potential to enhance the Gleason grading system with novel features that more accurately reflect a personalized prediction of clinical failure. METHODS: A prospectively designed retrospective study utilizing 892 patients, post radical prostatectomy, followed for a median of 8 years. In training, using digital image analysis to combine microscopic pattern analysis/machine learning with biomarkers, we evaluated Precise Post-op model results to predict clinical failure in 446 patients. The derived prognostic score was validated in 446 patients. Eligible subjects required complete clinical-pathologic variables and were excluded if they had received neoadjuvant treatment including androgen deprivation, radiation or chemotherapy prior to surgery. No patients were enrolled with metastatic disease prior to surgery. Evaluate the assay using time to event concordance index (C-index), Kaplan-Meier, and hazards ratio. RESULTS: In the training cohort (n = 306), the Precise Post-op test predicted significant clinical failure with a C-index of 0.82, [95% CI: 0.76-0.86], HR:6.7, [95% CI: 3.59-12.45], p < 0.00001. Results were confirmed in validation (n = 284) with a C-index 0.77 [95% CI: 0.72-0.81], HR = 5.4, [95% CI: 2.74-10.52], p < 0.00001. By comparison, a clinical feature base model had a C-index of 0.70 with a HR = 3.7. The Post-Op test also re-classified 58% of CAPRA-S intermediate risk patients as low risk for clinical failure. CONCLUSIONS: Precise Post-op tissue-based test discriminates low from intermediate high risk prostate cancer disease progression in the postoperative setting. Guided by machine learning, the test enhances traditional Gleason grading with novel features that accurately reflect the biology of personalized risk assignment.
BACKGROUND: Postoperative risk assessment remains an important variable in the effective treatment of prostate cancer. There is an unmet clinical need for a test with the potential to enhance the Gleason grading system with novel features that more accurately reflect a personalized prediction of clinical failure. METHODS: A prospectively designed retrospective study utilizing 892 patients, post radical prostatectomy, followed for a median of 8 years. In training, using digital image analysis to combine microscopic pattern analysis/machine learning with biomarkers, we evaluated Precise Post-op model results to predict clinical failure in 446 patients. The derived prognostic score was validated in 446 patients. Eligible subjects required complete clinical-pathologic variables and were excluded if they had received neoadjuvant treatment including androgen deprivation, radiation or chemotherapy prior to surgery. No patients were enrolled with metastatic disease prior to surgery. Evaluate the assay using time to event concordance index (C-index), Kaplan-Meier, and hazards ratio. RESULTS: In the training cohort (n = 306), the Precise Post-op test predicted significant clinical failure with a C-index of 0.82, [95% CI: 0.76-0.86], HR:6.7, [95% CI: 3.59-12.45], p < 0.00001. Results were confirmed in validation (n = 284) with a C-index 0.77 [95% CI: 0.72-0.81], HR = 5.4, [95% CI: 2.74-10.52], p < 0.00001. By comparison, a clinical feature base model had a C-index of 0.70 with a HR = 3.7. The Post-Op test also re-classified 58% of CAPRA-S intermediate risk patients as low risk for clinical failure. CONCLUSIONS: Precise Post-op tissue-based test discriminates low from intermediate high risk prostate cancer disease progression in the postoperative setting. Guided by machine learning, the test enhances traditional Gleason grading with novel features that accurately reflect the biology of personalized risk assignment.