Rebecca Armstrong1,2,3, Martyn Symons4,5, James G Scott2,6, Wendy L Arnott1,7, David A Copland1,2, Katie L McMahon3, Andrew J O Whitehouse4. 1. School of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia. 2. Centre for Clinical Research, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia. 3. Centre for Advanced Imaging, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia. 4. Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth. 5. National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) Research Australia, Centre of Research Excellence, Perth. 6. Metro North Mental Health, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Australia. 7. Hear and Say, Brisbane, Australia.
Abstract
Purpose: The current study aimed to compare traditional logistic regression models with machine learning algorithms to investigate the predictive ability of (a) communication performance at 3 years old on language outcomes at 10 years old and (b) broader developmental skills (motor, social, and adaptive) at 3 years old on language outcomes at 10 years old. Method: Participants (N = 1,322) were drawn from the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) Study (Straker et al., 2017). A general developmental screener, the Infant Monitoring Questionnaire (Squires, Bricker, & Potter, 1990), was completed by caregivers at the 3-year follow-up. Language ability at 10 years old was assessed using the Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals-Third Edition (Semel, Wiig, & Secord, 1995). Logistic regression models and interpretable machine learning algorithms were used to assess predictive abilities of early developmental milestones for later language outcomes. Results: Overall, the findings showed that prediction accuracies were comparable between logistic regression and machine learning models using communication-only performance as well as performance on communication and broader developmental domains to predict language performance at 10 years old. Decision trees are incorporated to visually present these findings but must be interpreted with caution because of the poor accuracy of the models overall. Conclusions: The current study provides preliminary evidence that machine learning algorithms provide equivalent predictive accuracy to traditional methods. Furthermore, the inclusion of broader developmental skills did not improve predictive capability. Assessment of language at more than 1 time point is necessary to ensure children whose language delays emerge later are identified and supported. Supplemental Material: https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.6879719.
Purpose: The current study aimed to compare traditional logistic regression models with machine learning algorithms to investigate the predictive ability of (a) communication performance at 3 years old on language outcomes at 10 years old and (b) broader developmental skills (motor, social, and adaptive) at 3 years old on language outcomes at 10 years old. Method: Participants (N = 1,322) were drawn from the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) Study (Straker et al., 2017). A general developmental screener, the Infant Monitoring Questionnaire (Squires, Bricker, & Potter, 1990), was completed by caregivers at the 3-year follow-up. Language ability at 10 years old was assessed using the Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals-Third Edition (Semel, Wiig, & Secord, 1995). Logistic regression models and interpretable machine learning algorithms were used to assess predictive abilities of early developmental milestones for later language outcomes. Results: Overall, the findings showed that prediction accuracies were comparable between logistic regression and machine learning models using communication-only performance as well as performance on communication and broader developmental domains to predict language performance at 10 years old. Decision trees are incorporated to visually present these findings but must be interpreted with caution because of the poor accuracy of the models overall. Conclusions: The current study provides preliminary evidence that machine learning algorithms provide equivalent predictive accuracy to traditional methods. Furthermore, the inclusion of broader developmental skills did not improve predictive capability. Assessment of language at more than 1 time point is necessary to ensure children whose language delays emerge later are identified and supported. Supplemental Material: https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.6879719.