Fang Wang1, Shu Cui2, Fengmei Wang1, Fenghui Li1, Fei Tang1, Xu Zhang1, Yanying Gao1, Hongmin Lv1. 1. a Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology of Tianjin Third Central Hospital , Tianjin Institute of Hepatobiliary Disease, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Artificial Cell, Artificial Cell Engineering Technology Research Center of Public Health Ministry , Tianjin , China. 2. b The Third Central Clinical College of Tianjin Medical University , Tianjin Third Central Hospital , Tianjin , China.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Determine the optimal scoring system for evaluation of 6-week bleeding-related mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). Prediction effects of six scoring systems, AIMS65 score, Glasgow-Blatchford (GBS) score, full Rockall (FRS) score, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), the MELD-Na model and the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score were analyzed in this study. METHODS: A total of 202 liver cirrhosis patients with AVB were enrolled between 1 January 2014, and 31 December 2014. All subjects were scored according to AIMS65, GBS, FRS, MELD, MELD-Na and CTP scoring systems on the first day of admission. The primary endpoint of the study was 6-week mortality. The prediction effect of these scoring systems for 6-week mortality was compared by ROC curve and the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: The scores of nonsurvival group evaluated by the AIMS65, GBS, FRS, MELD, MELD-Na and CTP (2.6 ± 1.1, 12.9 ± 2.7, 6.6 ± 1.8, 26.9 ± 6.5, 31.6 ± 9.3, 9.6 ± 2.2, respectively) were higher than those of the survival group (1.2 ± 1.1, 10.2 ± 3.4, 5.1 ± 1.6, 21.0 ± 6.4, 22.8 ± 8.2, 7.7 ± 2.0, respectively) (p < .01). The values of AUC and Youden index of AIMS65 and MELD-Na scoring systems [(0.808, 0.453) and (0.781, 0.516), respectively] were superior to those of MELD (0.761, 0.454), CTP (0.748, 0.399), FRS (0.738, 0.358) and GBS scoring systems (0.726, 0.370). CONCLUSIONS: AIMS65 and MELD-Na scoring systems are recommended for evaluation of 6-week bleeding-related mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with AVB.
OBJECTIVE: Determine the optimal scoring system for evaluation of 6-week bleeding-related mortality in liver cirrhosispatients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). Prediction effects of six scoring systems, AIMS65 score, Glasgow-Blatchford (GBS) score, full Rockall (FRS) score, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), the MELD-Na model and the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score were analyzed in this study. METHODS: A total of 202 liver cirrhosispatients with AVB were enrolled between 1 January 2014, and 31 December 2014. All subjects were scored according to AIMS65, GBS, FRS, MELD, MELD-Na and CTP scoring systems on the first day of admission. The primary endpoint of the study was 6-week mortality. The prediction effect of these scoring systems for 6-week mortality was compared by ROC curve and the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: The scores of nonsurvival group evaluated by the AIMS65, GBS, FRS, MELD, MELD-Na and CTP (2.6 ± 1.1, 12.9 ± 2.7, 6.6 ± 1.8, 26.9 ± 6.5, 31.6 ± 9.3, 9.6 ± 2.2, respectively) were higher than those of the survival group (1.2 ± 1.1, 10.2 ± 3.4, 5.1 ± 1.6, 21.0 ± 6.4, 22.8 ± 8.2, 7.7 ± 2.0, respectively) (p < .01). The values of AUC and Youden index of AIMS65 and MELD-Na scoring systems [(0.808, 0.453) and (0.781, 0.516), respectively] were superior to those of MELD (0.761, 0.454), CTP (0.748, 0.399), FRS (0.738, 0.358) and GBS scoring systems (0.726, 0.370). CONCLUSIONS: AIMS65 and MELD-Na scoring systems are recommended for evaluation of 6-week bleeding-related mortality in liver cirrhosispatients with AVB.
Authors: Mohamed Tausif Siddiqui; Mohammad Bilal; Khwaja Fahad Haq; Christopher Nabors; Beth Schorr-Lesnick; David C Wolf Journal: Clin Endosc Date: 2019-12-27