| Literature DB >> 29879021 |
Mas'uud Ibnu Samsudin1, Nan Liu1,2, Sumanth Madhusudan Prabhakar3, Shu-Ling Chong4, Weng Kit Lye1, Zhi Xiong Koh5, Dagang Guo5, R Rajesh3, Andrew Fu Wah Ho6, Marcus Eng Hock Ong1,5.
Abstract
A quick, objective, non-invasive means of identifying high-risk septic patients in the emergency department (ED) can improve hospital outcomes through early, appropriate management. Heart rate variability (HRV) analysis has been correlated with mortality in critically ill patients. We aimed to develop a Singapore ED sepsis (SEDS) predictive model to assess the risk of 30-day in-hospital mortality in septic patients presenting to the ED. We used demographics, vital signs, and HRV parameters in model building and compared it with the modified early warning score (MEWS), national early warning score (NEWS), and quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score.Adult patients clinically suspected to have sepsis in the ED and who met the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria were included. Routine triage electrocardiogram segments were used to obtain HRV variables. The primary endpoint was 30-day in-hospital mortality. Multivariate logistic regression was used to derive the SEDS model. MEWS, NEWS, and qSOFA (initial and worst measurements) scores were computed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate their predictive performances.Of the 214 patients included in this study, 40 (18.7%) met the primary endpoint. The SEDS model comprises of 5 components (age, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, mean RR interval, and detrended fluctuation analysis α2) and performed with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72-0.86), compared with 0.65 (95% CI: 0.56-0.74), 0.70 (95% CI: 0.61-0.79), 0.70 (95% CI: 0.62-0.79), 0.56 (95% CI: 0.46-0.66) by qSOFA (initial), qSOFA (worst), NEWS, and MEWS, respectively.HRV analysis is a useful component in mortality risk prediction for septic patients presenting to the ED.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 29879021 PMCID: PMC5999455 DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000010866
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Medicine (Baltimore) ISSN: 0025-7974 Impact factor: 1.889
Figure 1Patient flow with breakdown of 30-day in-hospital mortality (IHM) outcome.
Figure 2Breakdown of the composite outcomes.
Baseline characteristics and clinical parameters of patients by presence and absence of 30-day in-hospital mortality (IHM).
Vital signs and heart rate variability (HRV) variables of patients who did and did not meet the 30-day in-hospital mortality (IHM) outcome.
Odds ratios of covariates remaining in SEDS model for predicting 30-day in-hospital mortality (IHM) following forward selection stepwise logistic regression.
Odds ratios of covariates remaining in SEDS model for predicting composite outcomes following forward selection stepwise logistic regression.
Figure 3Predictive performances of the SEDS model and the different scoring systems represented by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for prediction of 30-day IHM. IHM = in-hospital mortality; SEDS = Singapore emergency department sepsis.
Predictive performances of SEDS model and the different illness scoring systems—qSOFA, NEWS, and MEWS for predicting 30-day in-hospital mortality (IHM).
Figure 4Predictive performances of the SEDS model and the different scoring systems represented by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for prediction of composite outcomes. SEDS = Singapore emergency department sepsis.
Predictive performances of SEDS model and the different illness scoring systems—qSOFA, NEWS, and MEWS for predicting the composite outcomes.