Predictive value of gene methylation for second recurrence following surgical treatment of first bladder recurrence of a primary upper-tract urothelial carcinoma.

The clinical relevance of aberrant DNA promoter methylation is being increasingly recognized in urothelial carcinoma. The present study was conducted to explore the methylation status of patients with upper-tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) who experienced bladder recurrence, and to evaluate the predictive value of gene methylation for second bladder recurrence and tumor progression. A total of 85 patients with primary UTUC, who experienced bladder recurrence after radical nephroureterectomy, were enrolled between January 2001 and December 2013. Using methylation-sensitive polymerase chain reaction, the promoter methylation statuses of 10 genes were analyzed in the bladder tumor specimens. Among the patient group, 32 patients experienced second bladder recurrence, and bladder progression was detected in 16. With the exception of BRCA1, the methylation rate of the majority of genes tended to gradually increase to varying extents with the number of recurrences; a smaller proportion of primary tumors exhibited gene methylation when compared with the first recurrent tumors and second recurrent tumors. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that unmethylated GDF15 [hazard ratio (HR)=0.36; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.14-0.92] and methylated VIM (HR=2.91; 95% CI, 1.11-7.61) in the first recurrent bladder tumor, as well as male gender (HR=2.28; 95% CI, 1.06-4.87), first recurrence interval <8 months (HR=2.34; 95% CI, 1.15-4.78) and primary UTUC tumor size ≥5 cm (HR=3.48; 95% CI, 1.43-8.45) were independent risk factors for a second bladder recurrence after surgery for the first bladder recurrence; the Harrell's concordance index (c-index) for the related nomogram was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.61-0.81). Furthermore, methylated CDH1 (HR=2.91; 95% CI, 1.08-7.77) and VIM (HR=4.91; 95% CI, 1.11-21.7) in the first recurrent bladder tumor, male gender (HR=3.6; 95% CI, 1.1-11.73), and primary tumor stage T2-T4 (HR=4.57; 95% CI, 1.22-17.13), multifocality (HR=3.64; 95% CI, 1.19-11.16) and size ≥5 cm (HR=3.1; 95% CI, 1.91-10.54) for the primary UTUC were considered to be predictors of tumor progression; the c-index for the nomogram was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.69-0.92). The present findings demonstrated that promoter methylation of cancer-related genes was frequently observed in patients with urothelial carcinoma, and that the gene methylation rate of certain genes tended to gradually increase with the number of bladder recurrences. This may be used as a predictive factor for a second bladder recurrence and tumor progression after the surgical treatment of the first bladder recurrence.