The assessment framework of provincial carbon emission driving factors: An empirical analysis of Hebei Province.

The achievement of emission reduction targets in each province is necessary for Chinese government to reach its international obligations. Research on the detailed disaggregate driving factors based on provincial carbon emission changes could inform better carbon emission reduction policies. This paper establishes an assessment framework of provincial carbon emissions drivers using system dynamics modelling and makes an empirical analysis of Hebei Province. The model attempts to simulate the dynamic relationship between carbon emissions generation and suppression through seven subsystems including population economy, secondary industry, and policies. In addition, carbon sinks and carbon markets are also incorporated into this framework. Based on the socio-economic conditions, policy guidance and emission reduction targets of Hebei Province, we analyze the impact of single-factor changes and make a four scenario evaluation to explore the mitigation strategies in the light of provincial level. The simulation results are acquired as listed; (1) The impact of technology and energy structure on emission reduction is seen to be obviously, and excessive reliance on carbon emissions trading could not be generated conducive to emission reduction. (2) The combined effectiveness of driving factors is not equal to the aggregation of simple summation of each single factor. (3) The role of carbon sinks in reducing emissions should not be ignored. Therefore, the results of empirical analysis show that targeted emission reduction measures should be formulated according to the actual carbon emission sources. Policy implications in terms of our study results are recommended alternatively.