Christian Bommer1, Vera Sagalova2, Esther Heesemann2, Jennifer Manne-Goehler3,4, Rifat Atun4,5,6, Till Bärnighausen4,7,8, Justine Davies9,10, Sebastian Vollmer2,4. 1. Department of Economics and Centre for Modern Indian Studies, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany christian.bommer@wiwi.uni-goettingen.de. 2. Department of Economics and Centre for Modern Indian Studies, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany. 3. Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA. 4. Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA. 5. Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA. 6. Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA. 7. Heidelberg Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany. 8. Africa Health Research Institute, Somkhele, South Africa. 9. Centre for Global Health, King's College London, London, U.K. 10. MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit, School of Public Health, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Despite the importance of diabetes for global health, the future economic consequences of the disease remain opaque. We forecast the full global costs of diabetes in adults through the year 2030 and predict the economic consequences of diabetes if global targets under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and World Health Organization Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases 2013-2020 are met. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We modeled the absolute and gross domestic product (GDP)-relative economic burden of diabetes in individuals aged 20-79 years using epidemiological and demographic data, as well as recent GDP forecasts for 180 countries. We assumed three scenarios: prevalence and mortality 1) increased only with urbanization and population aging (baseline scenario), 2) increased in line with previous trends (past trends scenario), and 3) achieved global targets (target scenario). RESULTS: The absolute global economic burden will increase from U.S. $1.3 trillion (95% CI 1.3-1.4) in 2015 to $2.2 trillion (2.2-2.3) in the baseline, $2.5 trillion (2.4-2.6) in the past trends, and $2.1 trillion (2.1-2.2) in the target scenarios by 2030. This translates to an increase in costs as a share of global GDP from 1.8% (1.7-1.9) in 2015 to a maximum of 2.2% (2.1-2.2). CONCLUSIONS: The global costs of diabetes and its consequences are large and will substantially increase by 2030. Even if countries meet international targets, the global economic burden will not decrease. Policy makers need to take urgent action to prepare health and social security systems to mitigate the effects of diabetes.
OBJECTIVE: Despite the importance of diabetes for global health, the future economic consequences of the disease remain opaque. We forecast the full global costs of diabetes in adults through the year 2030 and predict the economic consequences of diabetes if global targets under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and World Health Organization Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases 2013-2020 are met. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We modeled the absolute and gross domestic product (GDP)-relative economic burden of diabetes in individuals aged 20-79 years using epidemiological and demographic data, as well as recent GDP forecasts for 180 countries. We assumed three scenarios: prevalence and mortality 1) increased only with urbanization and population aging (baseline scenario), 2) increased in line with previous trends (past trends scenario), and 3) achieved global targets (target scenario). RESULTS: The absolute global economic burden will increase from U.S. $1.3 trillion (95% CI 1.3-1.4) in 2015 to $2.2 trillion (2.2-2.3) in the baseline, $2.5 trillion (2.4-2.6) in the past trends, and $2.1 trillion (2.1-2.2) in the target scenarios by 2030. This translates to an increase in costs as a share of global GDP from 1.8% (1.7-1.9) in 2015 to a maximum of 2.2% (2.1-2.2). CONCLUSIONS: The global costs of diabetes and its consequences are large and will substantially increase by 2030. Even if countries meet international targets, the global economic burden will not decrease. Policy makers need to take urgent action to prepare health and social security systems to mitigate the effects of diabetes.
Authors: Lyndsay A Nelson; Michael T Ackerman; Robert A Greevy; Kenneth A Wallston; Lindsay S Mayberry Journal: Am J Prev Med Date: 2019-05-24 Impact factor: 5.043
Authors: Conor Brosnan; Jarlath C Bolger; Eamonn M Bolger; Michael E Kelly; Roisin Tully; Mohamed AlAzzawi; William B Robb Journal: Obes Surg Date: 2020-08-21 Impact factor: 4.129
Authors: Kristin L Schneider; Ryan T Crews; Vasanth Subramanian; Elizabeth Moxley; Sungsoon Hwang; Frank E DiLiberto; Laura Aylward; Jermaine Bean; Sai Yalla Journal: J Diabetes Sci Technol Date: 2019-01-18