| Literature DB >> 29441036 |
Peter D Dijkstra1, Paul T Y Preenen2, Hans van Essen3.
Abstract
The color of an athlete's uniform may have an effect on psychological functioning and consequently bias the chances of winning contests in sport competition. Several studies reported a winning bias for judo athletes wearing a blue outfit relative to those wearing a white outfit. However, we argue there is no winning bias and that previous studies were confounded and based on small and specific data sets. We tested whether blue biases winning in judo using a very extensive judo data set (45,874 contests from all international judo tournaments between 2008 and 2014). In judo, the first called athlete for the fight used to wear the blue judogi but this was changed to the white judogi in 2011. This switch enabled us to compare the win bias before and after this change to isolate the effect of the color of the judogi. We found a significant win bias for the first called athlete, but this effect was not significantly related to the color of the judogi. The lack of a significant win effect of judogi color suggests that blue does not bias winning in judo, and that the blue-white pairing ensures an equal level of play. Our study shows the importance of thoroughly considering alternative explanations and using extensive datasets in color research in sports and psychology.Entities:
Keywords: color; competition outcome; contests; human performance; judo; psychological functioning
Year: 2018 PMID: 29441036 PMCID: PMC5797609 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00045
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Psychol ISSN: 1664-1078
Figure 1Shown here is heavyweight champion Teddy Riner in blue at the top and in white at the bottom at the World Championships in Tokyo (2010) and at the World Championships in Astana (2015), respectively. The first called athlete for the fight used to wear the blue judogi and the second called athlete the white judogi. However, starting at the World Championships in 2011 (WC 2011), the first called athlete wears the white judogi. Everything else remained the same. As a consequence, before the switch was introduced seeded athletes (such as Teddy Riner) mostly fought in blue, but are now mostly fighting in white. In addition, before the switch the athlete in blue had on average a longer recovery time between contests and was always to the right relative to the scoring board. After the switch, all this was reversed with now white having on average a longer recovery time and being placed to the right relative to the scoring board. Photo credit: IJF.org (top photo), and Judoinside.com (bottom photo). Reproduced with permission.
Figure 2(A) Influence of judogi color on the outcome of judo contests. Shown in blue is the percentage of contests won by the first called athlete wearing blue (all tournaments until the World Championships of 2011); shown in white is the percentage of contests won by the first called athlete wearing white (all tournaments after the World Championships of 2011). Data of all contests (n = 45,874) were combined to calculate the percentage of wins of the first called athlete for each weight category. (B) Influence of judogi color on the outcome of judo contests for each tournament type separately. Shown in blue is the percentage of contests won by the first called athlete wearing blue (all tournaments until the World Championships of 2011); shown in white is the percentage of contests won by the first called athlete wearing white (all tournaments after the World Championships of 2011). Data of all contests (n = 45,874) were combined to calculate the percentage of wins of the first called athlete for each weight category.
Effect of the color switch on the probability that the first athlete wins.
| (Intercept) | 0.42 | 0.35–0.50 | < | 0.45 | 0.36–0.57 | < |
| Color switch | 1.04 | 0.90–1.20 | 0.606 | 1.19 | 0.96–1.47 | 0.114 |
| Round (1/32) | 3.00 | 2.52–3.58 | < | 3.85 | 2.90–5.11 | < |
| Round (1/16) | 3.28 | 2.83–3.81 | < | 4.06 | 3.40–4.85 | < |
| Round (1/8) | 2.99 | 2.59–3.44 | < | 3.66 | 3.13–4.28 | < |
| Round (1/4) | 1.96 | 1.70–2.26 | < | 2.24 | 1.93–2.61 | < |
| Round (1/2) | 1.36 | 1.17–1.59 | < | 1.42 | 1.21–1.67 | < |
| τ00, Judoka | 0.876 | 1.245 | ||||
| τ00, Event | 0.161 | 0.380 | ||||
| NJudoka | 3,055 | 1,787 | ||||
| NEvent | 162 | 162 | ||||
| ICCJudoka | 0.203 | 0.253 | ||||
| ICCEvent | 0.037 | 0.077 | ||||
| Observations | 27,384 | 18,490 | ||||
| AIC | 34,597.43 | 22,400.26 | ||||
| Deviance | 30,842.23 | 19,535.52 | ||||
Effect of the color switch on the probability that the first athlete wins (first called athlete wears blue is used as reference category) for the men's (left) and the women's (right) division using mixed effects logistic regression. Also shown are the effects of round (compared to the final) and the random effects of judoka and tournament (event). For fixed effects, we report the odds ratio [with its 95% confidence interval and significance level (p < 0.05) shown in bold]. Shown are the within-group variance (σ.
The Effect of the color switch on the probability that the first athlete wins or each tournament type separately.
| (Intercept) | 0.75 | 0.38–1.47 | 0.401 | 0.71 | 0.52–0.98 | 0.51 | 0.34–0.77 | 0.53 | 0.26–1.07 | 0.075 | 0.75 | 0.61–0.92 | |||
| Color switch | 1.11 | 0.86–1.43 | 0.442 | 0.83 | 0.71–0.97 | 0.86 | 0.68–1.09 | 0.211 | 1.12 | 0.92–1.38 | 0.264 | 1.08 | 0.96–1.22 | 0.196 | |
| Round (1/32) | 2.01 | 0.85–4.75 | 0.112 | 1.56 | 1.07–2.27 | 2.20 | 1.41–3.44 | 2.18 | 1.08–4.40 | 1.65 | 1.30–2.08 | < | |||
| Round (1/16) | 2.51 | 1.27–4.99 | 3.10 | 2.27–4.22 | < | 4.71 | 3.19–6.94 | < | 2.43 | 1.22–4.85 | 1.85 | 1.51–2.26 | < | ||
| Round (1/8) | 3.39 | 1.72–6.70 | < | 2.99 | 2.22–4.04 | < | 3.66 | 2.53–5.30 | < | 2.18 | 1.09–4.38 | 2.23 | 1.84–2.70 | < | |
| Round (1/4) | 1.57 | 0.79–3.13 | 0.200 | 1.97 | 1.46–2.67 | < | 2.17 | 1.49–3.16 | < | 1.25 | 0.61–2.57 | 0.539 | 1.76 | 1.45–2.15 | < |
| Round (1/2) | 1.23 | 0.59–2.59 | 0.582 | 1.34 | 0.97–1.85 | 0.075 | 1.40 | 0.94–2.10 | 0.098 | 0.64 | 0.29–1.39 | 0.258 | 1.38 | 1.12–1.70 | |
| τ00, Judoka | 0.479 | 0.492 | 0.657 | 0.992 | 0.488 | ||||||||||
| τ00, Event | 0.000 | 0.012 | 0.048 | 0.000 | 0.035 | ||||||||||
| NJudoka | 430 | 1,203 | 981 | 845 | 2,545 | ||||||||||
| NEvent | 7 | 36 | 24 | 7 | 88 | ||||||||||
| ICCJudoka | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.13 | ||||||||||
| ICCEvent | 0.00 | 0.003 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | ||||||||||
| Observations | 1,369 | 5,736 | 4,576 | 2,368 | 13,335 | ||||||||||
| AIC | 1,714.13 | 7,341.37 | 5,781.96 | 3,054.97 | 1,7396.24 | ||||||||||
| Deviance | 1,500.45 | 6,562.05 | 5,022.87 | 2,436.00 | 1,5612.28 | ||||||||||
For fixed effects, we report the odds ratio [with its 95% confidence interval and significance level (p < 0.05) shown in bold]. Shown are the results for the men's division.
The effect of the color switch on the probability that the first athlete wins for each tournament type separately.
| (Intercept) | 1.12 | 0.56–2.25 | 0.746 | 0.97 | 0.68–1.37 | 0.862 | 0.65 | 0.39–1.09 | 0.103 | 0.45 | 0.21–0.95 | 0.78 | 0.61–0.99 | ||
| Color switch | 0.94 | 0.67–1.32 | 0.731 | 0.88 | 0.69–1.13 | 0.315 | 1.13 | 0.73–1.74 | 0.581 | 1.19 | 0.81–1.75 | 0.374 | 1.14 | 0.93–1.40 | 0.196 |
| Round (1/32) | 0.78 | 0.24–2.51 | 0.676 | 1.20 | 0.47–3.10 | 0.704 | 2.77 | 1.26–6.10 | 2.16 | 1.46–3.20 | |||||
| Round (1/16) | 1.63 | 0.75–3.51 | 0.215 | 2.49 | 1.76–3.53 | 5.08 | 3.20–8.05 | 3.02 | 1.48–6.16 | 2.49 | 1.95–3.18 | ||||
| Round (1/8) | 2.83 | 1.37–5.84 | 2.90 | 2.12–3.97 | 3.18 | 2.10–4.83 | 3.97 | 1.96–8.03 | 2.88 | 2.33–3.57 | |||||
| Round (1/4) | 2.24 | 1.08–4.64 | 1.81 | 1.34–2.46 | 2.06 | 1.37–3.11 | 1.96 | 0.96–3.99 | 0.063 | 2.01 | 1.63–2.47 | ||||
| Round (1/2) | 1.29 | 0.60–2.78 | 0.521 | 1.38 | 1.00–1.91 | 0.052 | 1.12 | 0.73–1.71 | 0.617 | 1.83 | 0.85–3.94 | 0.124 | 1.37 | 1.10–1.71 | |
| τ00, Judoka | 0.679 | 0.337 | 0.965 | 0.947 | 0.805 | ||||||||||
| τ00, Event | 0.000 | 0.060 | 0.224 | 0.035 | 0.146 | ||||||||||
| NJudoka | 244 | 736 | 583 | 544 | 1,504 | ||||||||||
| NEvent | 7 | 36 | 24 | 7 | 88 | ||||||||||
| ICCJudoka | 0.171 | 0.091 | 0.215 | 0.222 | 0.190 | ||||||||||
| ICCEvent | 0.000 | 0.016 | 0.050 | 0.008 | 0.034 | ||||||||||
| Observations | 872 | 3,806 | 3,165 | 1,606 | 9,041 | ||||||||||
| AIC | 1,038.72 | 4,796.68 | 3,766.68 | 2,021.84 | 11,235.38 | ||||||||||
| Deviance | 873.88 | 4,371.28 | 3,146.49 | 1,613.47 | 9,678.73 | ||||||||||
For fixed effects, we report the odds ratio [with its 95% confidence interval and significance level (p < 0.05) shown in bold]. Shown are the results for the women's division.
Comparing the number of wins and losses of first called athletes when the color of the first called athlete was blue or white for both the men's and women's division.
| 1/32 | Men | 20.8 | 1.05 | 0.305 | |
| 1/16 | 437.38 | 219.62 | |||
| 1/8 | 440.39 | 532.04 | |||
| 1/4 | 101.93 | 203.63 | |||
| 1/2 | 31.19 | 36.48 | |||
| Final | 6.22 | 3.41 | 0.0647 | ||
| 1/32 | Women | 9.59 | 2.66 | 0.103 | |
| 1/16 | 308.33 | 146.14 | |||
| 1/8 | 564.55 | 532.08 | |||
| 1/4 | 214.78 | 264.94 | |||
| 1/2 | 68.51 | 63.71 | |||
| Final | 24.99 | 12.33 | |||
Statistical tests are based on χ.