Xiao Xiang1, Peng-Cheng Yu2, Di Long2, Xiao-Li Liao1, Sen Zhang2, Xue-Mei You1, Jian-Hong Zhong1, Le-Qun Li1. 1. Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China. 2. Department of Colorectal Anal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China.
Abstract
Programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) is thought to play a critical role in immune escape by cancer, but whether PD-L1 expression can influence prognosis of patients with solid tumors is controversial. Therefore, we meta-analyzed available data on whether PD-L1 expression correlates with overall survival (OS) in such patients. PubMed, EMBASE and other databases were systematically searched for cohort or case-control studies examining the possible correlation between PD-L1 expression and OS of patients with solid tumors. OS was compared between patients positive or negative for PD-L1 expression using scatter plots, and subgroup analyses were performed based on tumor type and patient characteristics. Data from 59 studies involving 20,004 patients with solid tumors were meta-analyzed. The median percentage of tumors positive for PD-L1 was 30.1%. OS was significantly lower in PD-L1-positive patients than in PD-L1-negative patients at 1 year (P = 0.039), 3 years (P < 0.001) and 5 years (P < 0.001). The risk ratios of OS (and associated 95% confidence intervals) were 2.02 (1.56-2.60) at 1 year, 1.57 (1.34-1.83) at 3 years and 1.43 (1.24-1.64) at 5 years. Similar results were obtained in subgroup analyses based on patient ethnicity or tumor type. The available evidence suggests that PD-L1 expression negatively affects the prognosis of patients with solid tumors. PD-L1 might serve as an efficient prognostic indicator in solid tumor and may represent the important new therapeutic target.
Programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) is thought to play a critical role in immune escape by cancer, but whether PD-L1 expression can influence prognosis of patients with solid tumors is controversial. Therefore, we meta-analyzed available data on whether PD-L1 expression correlates with overall survival (OS) in such patients. PubMed, EMBASE and other databases were systematically searched for cohort or case-control studies examining the possible correlation between PD-L1 expression and OS of patients with solid tumors. OS was compared between patients positive or negative for PD-L1 expression using scatter plots, and subgroup analyses were performed based on tumor type and patient characteristics. Data from 59 studies involving 20,004 patients with solid tumors were meta-analyzed. The median percentage of tumors positive for PD-L1 was 30.1%. OS was significantly lower in PD-L1-positive patients than in PD-L1-negative patients at 1 year (P = 0.039), 3 years (P < 0.001) and 5 years (P < 0.001). The risk ratios of OS (and associated 95% confidence intervals) were 2.02 (1.56-2.60) at 1 year, 1.57 (1.34-1.83) at 3 years and 1.43 (1.24-1.64) at 5 years. Similar results were obtained in subgroup analyses based on patient ethnicity or tumor type. The available evidence suggests that PD-L1 expression negatively affects the prognosis of patients with solid tumors. PD-L1 might serve as an efficient prognostic indicator in solid tumor and may represent the important new therapeutic target.
Immune co-stimulatory and co-inhibitory receptors determined the functional outcome of T cell receptor (TCR) signaling and immune surveillance [1]. Tumors can modulate the interactions between inhibitory receptors and ligands to scape immune responses [2, 3]. For example, the co-inhibitory receptor programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) plays a key role in cancer immune, especially in the immune escape phase [4]. PD-1 can be expressed in activated CD4 + and CD8 + T cells, but also in some natural killer cells and B cells [5]. When PD-1 binds to the ligand PD-L1 (B7-H1) expressed on the surface of tumors, it strongly inhibits the production of T cells and cytokines [6, 7], promoting tumor cell growth and immune escape [8, 9].PD-L1 also plays a key role in binding to PD-1 receptors expressed on activated T cells in T cell co-suppression and depletion [9-11]. PD-L1 expressed on tumor cells promotes tumor cell-specific T cell inactivation or apoptosis, leading to tumor cell growth and exacerbation of tumor immune escape [12]. PD-L1 is expressed in many types of humancancers, including in esophageal, gastrointestinal, pancreatic, breast, lung and kidney cancers [10-14]. Clinical trials suggest that blocking the PD-1/PD-L1 interaction using anti-PD-1 antibodies can be effective against several different malignancies, including melanoma, lung cancer, kidney cancer and bladder cancer [15-19].In addition to serving as a therapeutic target, PD-L1 may also be useful as a prognostic biomarker [22]. However, whether PD-L1 expression is associated with worse prognosis for patients with primary solid tumors remains controversial [20-22]. Therefore we meta-analyzed all available evidence to address this question comprehensively.
RESULTS
A total of 1,258 records were retrieved from PUBMED, EMBASE, Web of Science and EBSCO (Figure 1). After excluding 825 duplicate publications, we reviewed the abstracts and titles of the remaining 433 articles. This led to the exclusion of another 288 records that were not original research articles published in English. The remaining articles were read in full, leading to the exclusion of 86 records because they did not deal with humanpatients or solid tumors, or because they failed to report adequate outcomes data. In the end, 59 articles were included in the meta-analysis.
Figure 1
Flow chart of study selection
Key features of the 59 studies are summarized in Table 1; 35 studies involved Asian populations and 24 involved non-Asian populations. The studies analyzed 20,004 patients from China [23-41], France [42], New Zealand [43, 44], Brazil [45], Australia [46], Canada [47, 48], Italy [49], Germany [50, 51], United States [52-65], Japan [66-74], South Korea [75-78], Switzerland [79] and Taiwan [80, 81]. PD-L1 expression, which was analyzed in similar ways across all studies, was characterized as positive in 6,028 patients and negative in the remaining 13,976. One third of the studies (19) involved gastrointestinal tumors, while the remaining 40 involved other types of tumors. Altogether 11 malignancies were represented in the patient population: breast cancer (5 studies), renal cell carcinoma (7), colorectal cancer (3), esophageal cancer (3), gastric cancer (7), hepatocellular carcinoma (7), Merkel cell carcinoma (3), small cell lung cancer (11), oral squamous cell carcinoma (5), pancreatic cancer (3), and urinary tract epithelial cell carcinoma (4).
Table 1
Characteristics of studies included in the meta-analysis
Study
Country
Tumor type
Characteristic
Age
Gendermale / female
No. patients positive/ negative for PD-L1
PD-L1-positive OS (%)
PD-L1-negative OS (%)
P
1-yr
3-yr
5-yr
1-yr
3-yr
5-yr
Qin 2015
China
Breast cancer
Primary
47(21-84)
-
189/681
100
85
81
100
98
92
<0.001
Sabatier 2015
France
Breast cancer
Primary
≤50: 12881021 (28%)267 (31%)>50: 3207
-
1076/4378
97
90
82
97
90
81
0.070
Muenst 2014
Switzerland
Breast cancer
Primary
63.8 ± 14.2
-
152/498
90
55
37
98
85
80
<0.001
Baptista 2016
Brazil
Breast cancer
Primary
≤50: 1761021 (28%)267 (31%)>50: 204
107/82
98
90
85
100
96
93
0.030
Beckers 2016
Australia
Breast cancer
Primary
-
-
123/38
96
92
81
96
73
65
0.035
Droeser 2013
Italy
Colorectal cancer
Primary
69.9 (30–96)
741/673
669/1420
84
71
61
72
48
37
<0.001
Shi SJ 2013
China
Colorectal cancer
Primary
59.8 ± 12.5
91/116
64/143
75
54
42
90
72
61
0.017
Zhu 2014
China
Colorectal cancer
Primary
≤50: 541021 (28%)267 (31%)>50: 47
53/48
55/46
-
-
62
-
-
80
0.051
Krambeck 2007
USA
Renal cell carcinoma
Primary
≤65: 541021 (28%)267 (31%)>65: 47
150/148
70/228
78
62
48
91
83
76
<0.005
Thompson 2005
Canada
Renal cell carcinoma
Primary
-
-
103/196
84
67
52
93
87
84
<0.001
Thompson 2007
Canada
Renal cell carcinoma
Primary
≤65: 1381021 (28%)267 (31%)>65: 129
177/90
142/267
88
68
-
94
85
-
0.004
Abbas 2016
Germany
Renal cell carcinoma
Primary
63 (31–88)
116/61
37/140
85
57
47
92
75
66
0.005
Choueiri 2014
USA
Renal cell carcinoma
Primary
59 (24–81)
55/46
11/90
72
48
48
98
95
85
<0.001
Thompson 2004
USA
Renal cell carcinoma
Primary
-
-
87/109
87
62
-
95
92
-
<0.001
Thompson 2006
USA
Renal cell carcinoma
Primary
-
-
73/233
78
51
42
95
90
83
<0.001
Ohigashi 2005
Japan
Esophageal cancer
Primary
≤65: 241021 (28%)267 (31%)>65: 17
32/9
18/41
60
18
18
88
53
45
0.001
Tanaka 2016
Japan
Esophageal cancer
Primary
62.6 ± 10.0
157/33
53/127
61
30
25
79
56
51
0.001
Chen 2014
China
Esophageal cancer
Primary
≤65: 511021 (28%)267 (31%)>65: 48
76/23
79/20
100
44
17
83
44
37
0.675
Loos 2011
Germany
Esophageal cancer
Primary
-
-
37/64
79
51
32
96
82
69
<0.001
Shohei 2016
Japan
Gastric carcinoma
Primary
67 ± 14
75/30
28/105
84
41
10
91
63
51
0.022
Geng 2015
China
Gastric carcinoma
Primary
≤65: 651021 (28%)267 (31%)>65: 35
61/39
65/100
72
41
29
87
61
37
0.026
Hou 2014
China
Gastric carcinoma
Primary
≤58: 551021 (28%)267 (31%)>58: 56
75/36
70/111
78
46
32
93
77
68
<0.001
Wu 2006
Sweden
Gastric carcinoma
Primary
≤65: 641021 (28%)267 (31%)>65: 38
75/27
43/102
75
38
30
98
71
64
0.001
Tamura 2015
Japan
Gastric carcinoma
Primary
66.1 (17-89)
305/126
128/303
90
65
49
94
78
64
0.001
Zheng 2014
China
Gastric carcinoma
Primary
≤60: 421021 (28%)267 (31%)>60: 38
62/18
33/47
86
65
52
91
69
53
0.636
Qing 2015
USA
Gastric carcinoma
Primary
≤60: 421021 (28%)267 (31%)>60: 38
72/35
54/107
81
28
18
93
47
27
0.004
Gao 2009
China
Hepatocellular carcinoma
Primary
52 (18-81)
204/36
60/180
70
42
39
83
57
49
0.029
Jung 2016
South Korea
Hepatocellular carcinoma
Primary
≤53: 441021 (28%)267 (31%)>53: 41
69/16
23/62
43
19
17
90
69
59
<0.001
Kan 2015
China
Hepatocellular carcinoma
Primary
≤50: 561021 (28%)267 (31%)>50: 72
108/20
105/23
30
5
0
50
15
10
0.001
Umemoto 2015
Japan
Hepatocellular carcinoma
Primary
64 ± 10
71/9
37/43
74
51
40
80
73
71
0.051
Zeng 2011
China
Hepatocellular carcinoma
Primary
53.1(35–68
109/32
31/32
38
-
-
85
-
-
0.000
Gabrielson 2016
USA
Hepatocellular carcinoma
Primary
61 (30–86)
50/15
30/35
85
85
-
53
45
-
0.029
Wu 2009
China
Hepatocellular carcinoma
Primary
48, 23–75
65/6
35/36
81
54
40
97
83
71
0.014
Azuma 2014
Japan
Lung cancer
Primary
66 (39-82)
91/73
82/164
-
-
38
-
-
56
0.039
Chen 2012
China
Lung cancer
Primary
≤54: 231021 (28%)267 (31%)>54: 17
26/14
69/120
71
11
-
85
48
-
<0.001
Cooper 2015
USA
Lung cancer
Primary
-
477/201
628/678
95
73
62
84
54
44
0.023
Jiang 2015
China
Lung cancer
Primary
≤60: 151021 (28%)267 (31%)>60: 64
39/40
50/79
100
91
84
83
74
70
0.042
Kim 2015
South Korea
Lung cancer
Primary
65 (45–81)
33/8
89/331
65
38
27
78
49
49
0.570
Mu 2011
China
Lung cancer
Primary
-
-
58/109
87
20
-
95
38
-
<0.005
Velcheti 2014
USA
Lung cancer
Primary
≤70: 2321021 (28%)267 (31%)>70: 80
260/37
56/155
78
43
27
87
61
51
0.028
Yang 2014
Taiwan
Lung cancer
Primary
≤70: 1321021 (28%)267 (31%)>70: 31
54/109
65/163
98
93
91
98
87
83
0.027
Zhang 2014
China
Lung cancer
Primary
≤58: 731021 (28%)267 (31%)>58: 70
84/59
70/143
84
71
53
97
89
77
0.002
Song 2016
China
Lung cancer
Primary
<60: 207≥60: 178
198/187
186/199
99
71
40
99
79
52
0.069
Inamura 2016
Japan
Lung cancer
Primary
<60: 96≥60: 172
142/126
43/225
85
69
55
95
81
71
0.019
Chen 2009
China
Pancreatic cancer
Primary
<60: 61≥60: 55
76/23
18/40
32
8
-
84
58
17
0.001
Nomi 2007
Japan
Pancreatic cancer
Primary
-
-
20/51
48
12
-
78
24
-
0.016
Wang 2010
China
Pancreatic cancer
Primary
-
40/10
23/40
87
8
-
100
33
-
<0.001
Gadiot 2011
Netherlands
Merkel cell carcinoma
Primary
-
36/27
16/63
-
51
37
-
68
52
0.200
Hino 2010
Japan
Merkel cell carcinoma
Primary
68.84 ± 2.85
38/21
34/59
-
-
52
-
-
81
0.040
Taube 2012
USA
Merkel cell carcinoma
Primary
-
76/74
57/150
-
-
84
-
-
61
0.330
Boorjian 2008
USA
Urinary tract epithelial cell carcinoma
Primary
-
259/59
39/314
58
51
43
91
82
67
0.005
Nakanishi 2006
Japan
Urinary tract epithelial cell carcinoma
Primary
-
47/18
46/65
86
68
57
100
100
100
0.021
Wang 2009
China
Urinary tract epithelial cell carcinoma
Primary
-
31/5
36/50
91
68
-
100
100
-
0.020
Xylinas 2014
USA
Urinary tract epithelial cell carcinoma
Primary
65.9 (60.5e72.2)
244/58
76/226
83
66
63
95
82
69
0.020
Kim 2016
South Korea
Oral squamous cell cancer
Primary
65 (45–81)
33/8
90/43
97
83
80
98
83
75
0.625
Lin 2015
Taiwan
Oral squamous cell cancer
Primary
<56: 162≥56: 143
236/69
133/172
81
62
56
81
62
58
0.225
Cho 2011
South Korea
Oral squamous cell cancer
Primary
<59: 20≥59: 25
32/13
26/45
72
51
43
72
63
63
0.012
Oliveira 2015
USA
Oral squamous cell cancer
Primary
<60: 62≥60: 34
85/11
47/96
81
47
-
61
18
-
0.044
Ukpo 2013
USA
Oral squamous cell cancer
Primary
55.8 ± 9.4
186/23
84/181
89
74
62
97
76
64
0.730
PD-L1 expression and OS across all studies
Meta-analysis of data from all 59 studies showed that the median OS rate was significantly lower in PD-L1-positive patients than in PD-L1-negative patients at 1 year (P = 0.039), 3 years (P < 0.001) and 5 years (P < 0.001; Figure 2). The RR for OS at the three time points (and associated 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were 2.02 (1.56-2.60), 1.57 (1.34-1.83) and 1.43 (1.24-1.64) (Table 2 and Figure 2).
Figure 2
Scatter plot of OS at 1, 3 and 5 years for patients positive or negative for PD-L1 expression
Data come from the entire patient population.
Table 2
Meta-analysis of possible associations between PD-L1 expression and overall survival in patients with solid tumors
Group or subgroup
N
PD-L1(+/-)
1 year OS
3 year OS
5 year OS
RR (95 % CI)
P
I2
RR (95 % CI)
P
I2
RR (95 % CI)
P
I2
All studies
59
6028/13976
2.02 (1.56-2.60)
<0.001
84
1.57 (1.34-1.83)
<0.001
91
1.43 (1.24-1.64)
<0.001
92
Ethnic subgroups
Asian
35
2211/4126
1.83 (1.61-2.08)*
<0.001
49
1.57 (1.39-1.77)
<0.001
74
1.44 (1.31-1.58)
<0.001
92
Non-Asian
24
3817/9850
1.98 (1.27-3.09)
0.003
90
1.60(1.18-2.17)
0.003
95
1.39(1.08-1.78)
0.009
95
Tumor origin
Gastrointestinal tumors
24
1778/3206
2.12(1.45-3.09)
<0.001
86
1.52 (1.23-1.89)
<0.001
91
1.40 (1.17-1.67)
<0.001
91
Other tumors
35
4250/10770
1.79 (1.33-2.40)
<0.001
86
1.61 (1.30-1.98)
<0.001
92
1.47 (1.23-1.75)
<0.001
91
Tumor type
Breast cancer
5
1647/5677
1.80 (0.60-5.42)
0.30
79
1.79 (0.77-4.19)
<0.18
95
1.80 (0.68-4.73)
<0.24
96
Esophageal cancer
4
187/252
1.90 (0.69-5.21)
0.21
70
2.77 (1.78-4.30)*
<0.001
48
3.55 (2.63-5.65)*
<0.001
0
Gastric carcinoma
7
421/875
2.48 (1.80-3.41)*
<0.001
18
1.63(1.43-1.87)*
<0.001
32
1.45(1.18-1.79)
<0.001
79
Hepatocellular carcinoma
7
321/339
1.87(1.01-3.46)
0.04
78
1.40 (0.92-2.15)
0.12
84
1.58(1.11-2.25)
0.01
83
Lung cancer
11
1396/2366
1.39 (0.69-2.81)
0.36
88
1.17 (0.84-1.63)
0.35
92
1.16 (0.86-1.57)
0.32
93
Pancreatic cancer
3
61/131
3.43 (2.06-5.73)*
<0.001
15
1.48 (1.06-2.06)*
0.02
0
-
-
-
Merkel cell carcinoma
3
107/272
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.01 (0.41-2.99)
0.85
89
urinary tract epithelial cell carcinoma
4
197/655
6.24 (3.62-10.74)*
<0.001
0
3.43 (1.50-7.84)
0.003
75
1.79 (0.86-3.70)
0.12
82
Oral squamous cell cancer
5
380/537
1.05 (0.58-1.93)
0.87
63
0.95 (0.72-1.26)
0.72
55
1.07 (0.89-1.29)*
0.45
0
Renal cell carcinoma
7
208/572
3.38(2.13-5.39)*
<0.001
24
4.14 (2.07-8.26)
<0.001
81
2.57(1.46-4.52)
<0.001
79
Colorectal cancer
3
788/1609
1.17 (0.27-5.06)
0.84
95
0.94 (0.33-2. 67)
0.90
96
1.16 (0.55-2.45)
0.69
95
N, number of studies; OS, overall survival; RR, risk ratio; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval
* These meta-analyses were performed using a fixed-effects model. All other meta-analyses were performed using a random-effects model.
Scatter plot of OS at 1, 3 and 5 years for patients positive or negative for PD-L1 expression
Data come from the entire patient population.N, number of studies; OS, overall survival; RR, risk ratio; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval* These meta-analyses were performed using a fixed-effects model. All other meta-analyses were performed using a random-effects model.
Subgroup analysis by tumor type
Given the significant heterogeneity in the meta-analysis involving all 59 studies, we performed a series of subgroup analyses to eamine the possible correlation between PD-L1 expression and OS. PD-L1 expression was associated with worse 1-year OS for the following types of solid tumor (Table 2): gastric cancer, 2.48 (1.80-3.41); renal cell carcinoma, 3.38 (2.13-5.39); and hepatocellular carcinoma, 1.87 (1.01-3.46). PD-L1 expression was associated with worse 3-year OS for the following cancers: esophageal cancer, 2.77 (1.78-4.30); gastric cancer, 1.63 (1.43-1.87); pancreatic cancer, 1.48 (1.06-2.06); and renal cell carcinoma, 4.14 (2.07-8.26). PD-L1 expression was associated with worse 5-year OS for esophageal cancer, 3.55 (2.63-5.65); gastric cancer, 1.45 (1.18-1.79); hepatocellular carcinoma, 1.58 (1.11-2.25); and renal cell carcinoma, 2.57 (1.46-4.52).Among the subset of 4,984 patients with gastrointestinal tumors, 1,778 (35.6%) were PD-L1-positive and 3,206 (64.4%) were PD-L1-negative. PD-L1 expression was associated with significantly worse OS at 1 year (P = 0.004), 3 years (P = 0.005), and 5 years (P = 0.002; Figures 3 and 7). The corresponding RRs and 95% CIs were 2.12(1.45-3.09), 1.52 (1.23-1.89), and 1.40 (1.17-1.67) (Table 2).
Figure 3
Scatter plot of OS at 1, 3 and 5 years for patients positive or negative for PD-L1 expression
Data come from the subset of patients with gastrointestinal tumors.
Figure 7
Forrest plot of OS at 1, 3 and 5 years for patients positive or negative for PD-L1 expression
Data come from the subset of patients with gastrointestinal tumors.
Data come from the subset of patients with gastrointestinal tumors.Data come from the subset of patients with non-gastrointestinal tumors.Data come from the subset of Asian patients.Data come from the subset of non-Asian patients.
Forrest plot of OS at 1, 3 and 5 years for patients positive or negative for PD-L1 expression
Data come from the subset of patients with gastrointestinal tumors.Among the subset of 4,309 patients with non-gastrointestinal tumors, 2,298 (53.3%) were PD-L1-positive and 1,404 (59.3%) were PD-L1-negative. PD-L1 expression was associated with significantly worse OS at 1 year (P = 0.017), 3 years (P = 0.010) and 5 years (P = 0.003; Figures 4 and 8). The corresponding RRs and 95% CIs were 1.79 (1.33-2.40), 1.61 (1.30-1.98), and 1.47 (1.23-1.75) (Table 2).
Figure 4
Scatter plot of OS at 1, 3 and 5 years for patients positive or negative for PD-L1 expression
Data come from the subset of patients with non-gastrointestinal tumors.
Figure 8
Forrest plot of OS at 1, 3 and 5 years for patients positive or negative for PD-L1 expression
Data come from the subset of patients with non-gastrointestinal tumors.
Data come from the subset of patients with non-gastrointestinal tumors.
Subgroup analysis by patient ethnicity
Among the subset of 6,337 Asian patients, 2,211 were PD-L1-positive and 4,126 were PD-L1-negative. PD-L1 expression was associated with significantly lower OS at 1 year (P = 0.030), 3 years (P = 0.005) and 5 years (P = 0.005; Figures 5 and 9). The corresponding RRs and 95% CIs were 1.86 (1.61-2.08), 1.57 (1.39-1.77), and 1.44 (1.31-1.58) (Table 2).
Figure 5
Scatter plot of OS at 1, 3 and 5 years for patients positive or negative for PD-L1 expression
Data come from the subset of Asian patients.
Figure 9
Forrest plot of OS at 1, 3 and 5 years for patients positive or negative for PD-L1 expression
Data come from the subset of Asian patients.
Data come from the subset of Asian patients.Among the subset of 13,667 non-Asian patients, 3,817 were PD-L1-positive and 9,850 were PD-L1-negative. PD-L1 expression was associated with significantly lower OS at 1 year (P = 0.048), 3 years (P = 0.040) and 5 years (P = 0.024; Figures 6 and 10). The corresponding RRs and 95% CIs were 1.98 (1.27-3.09), 1.60 (1.18-2.17), and 1.39 (1.08-1.78) (Table 2).
Figure 6
Scatter plot of OS at 1, 3 and 5 years for patients positive or negative for PD-L1 expression
Data come from the subset of non-Asian patients.
Figure 10
Forrest plot of OS at 1, 3 and 5 years for patients positive or negative for PD-L1 expression
Data come from the subset of non-Asian patients.
Data come from the subset of non-Asian patients.
DISCUSSION
While studies published more than a decade ago established that PD-L1 promotes cancer immune escape [82, 83] and that blocking PD-L1 can improve the anti-tumor efficacy of anti-tumor responses [84-86], whether PD-L1 expression by solid tumors negatively affects patient prognosis remains unclear. Here we reviewed 59 studies involving 20,004 patients with 11 types of solid tumors and found strong evidence that PD-L1 expression is associated with significantly lower OS at 1, 3 and 5 years. This effect was observed in meta-analyses involving all patients as well as several subgroups of patients stratified by ethnicity and tumor type.PD-L1 positive expression is associated with viral infection and chronic inflammation [87]. Expression of PD-L1 and/or PD-1 has been described for numerous types of cancers associated with viral infection [88], including polycyclic virus-associated Merkel cell carcinoma [89], hepatitis B virus-associated hepatocellular carcinoma [33], human papillomavirus-associated head and neck cancer, and Epstein-Barr virus-related nasopharyngeal carcinoma [90]. In patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, PD-L1 expression was significantly higher in tumor macrophages than in matched normal tissues, and expression correlated with tumor grade [25].Our results are consistent with previous reports that PD-L1 expression is associated with worse 5-year outcome in patients with gastrointestinal carcinomas such as esophageal cancer and gastric cancer [70, 79] as well as colorectal cancer [25]. The precise mechanisms whereby PD-L1 expression may worsen prognosis are unknown; When PD-1 binds to the ligand PD-L1 (B7-H1) expressed on the surface of tumors, PD-1 has been shown to promote tumor cell-specific T cell inactivation or apoptosis [12].The results of this meta-analysis should be interpreted cautiously because of several limitations. One is the lack of a standardized assay and cut-off value for classifying patients as PD-L1-positive. This may help explain the high heterogeneity observed across the included studies. Another limitation is our exclusion of gray literature, which may have increased the risk of publication bias and selection bias.Despite these limitations, this large meta-analysis provides strong evidence that expression of PD-L1 may be a meaningful index for predicting prognosis in a wide variety of patients with solid tumors. These findings justify more focused prognostic studies in well-defined patient populations in which a panel of clinically relevant outcomes beyond only OS are considered.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Literature search
PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and EBSCO were searched through 15 January 2017 to identify cohort and case-control studies examining the relationship between PD-L1 expression and prognosis of patients with solid tumors. The following search terms were used: programmed death-ligand 1, PD-L1, B7-H1, CD274 and solid tumor.
Inclusion and exclusion criteria
To be included in our meta-analysis, studies had to involve (1) primary solid tumors in humanpatients; (2) The main content of the articles is to analyze the relationship between the expression of PD-L1 and the prognosis of solid tumors in patients; (3) a hospital-based or population-based case-control or cohort design, regardless of sample size; (4) immunohistochemical assay of PD-L1 expression as high and low PD-L1 expression; (5) all patients underwent surgery; and (6) adequate reporting of overall survival (OS) data. When eligible studies involved overlapping patient populations, only the most recent or complete report was included. Studies were excluded if they were letter, summary of meeting and review; if they were published in a language other than English; or if they failed to report adequate data; or they investigated metastatic tumors. Gray literature (Reports and papers that were not published in PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and EBSCO) was not included into this study. Reference lists within identified articles were also searched manually to identify additional articles.
Meta-analysis outcomes
The primary outcome in the meta-analysis was OS. This outcome was compared between patients showing high or positive PD-L1 expression and patients showing low or no expression, as defined within the individual studies.
Data collection
Two researchers (P.-C.Y, X.X) independently screened studies for inclusion. Disagreements were resolved by discussion and, when necessary, consultation with a third author (S.Z). The first author's name, year of publication, country, number of patients, and tumor type were extracted from each study, and OS results for 1, 3 and 5 years were extracted from tables or Kaplan-Meier curves.
Statistical analysis
Forest plots of OS were generated using RevMan 5.3 (Cochrane Collaboration, Copenhagen, Denmark). Weighted risk ratio (RR) estimates were generated from pooled data using Mantel-Haenszel random-effects meta-analysis, unless no statistically heterogeneity, in which case fixed-effects meta-analysis was performed. Statistical heterogeneity in meta-analyses was assessed using Cochrane's Q and I2statistics. Survival results were analyzed using scatter plots generated in Prism 5 (Graphpad Software, San Diego, USA). The results for different patient groups were compared using the log-rank test. The threshold of statistical significance was defined as P < 0.05.
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