WHO consultation on ETEC and Shigella burden of disease, Geneva, 6-7th April 2017: Meeting report.

According to the 2015 Global Burden of Disease Study, diarrhea ranked ninth among causes of death for all ages, and fourth among children under 5 years old, accounting for an estimated 499,000 deaths in this young age group. It was also the second most common cause of years lived with disability (2.39 billion YLDs). The goal of the WHO/UNICEF Integrated Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhea (GAPPD) is to reduce deaths from diarrhea in children under 5 years of age to less than 1 per 1000 live births, by 2025. Development of new and improved vaccines against diarrheal infections is a fundamental element of the strategy towards achieving this goal. Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and Shigella are enteropathogens that cause significant global mortality and morbidity, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. In 2016, WHO's Product Development for Vaccines Advisory Committee (PDVAC) recommended that the WHO's Initiative for Vaccine Research (IVR) engage in this area, based on PDVAC's criteria of prioritizing the development of vaccines against pathogens that will address a major unmet public health need, and for which clinical candidates with a good probability of technical success are in the pipeline. As a first step, WHO's IVR convened global subject matter experts to discuss the current global ETEC and Shigella disease burden estimates, including the current understanding of the long-term indirect effects of ETEC and Shigella infection, and how these data may affect future decision making on vaccine development for both pathogens. The available global burden estimates for ETEC and Shigella differ with respect to the relative importance of these two pathogens. The mortality estimates vary between iterations published by the same group, as well as between estimates of different groups, although the uncertainty intervals are broad and overlapping. These variances are attributable to differences in the data available and incorporated in the models; the methods used to detect the pathogens; the modelling methodologies; and, to actual changes in the total number of diarrheal deaths over time. The changes in the most recently reported mortality estimates for these pathogens, as compared to previous iterations, has led to debate as to whether investment in development of stand-alone vaccines, rather than combined vaccines, is warranted from cost-effectiveness and vaccine impact perspectives. Further work will be needed to understand better the variances and uncertainties in the reported mortality estimates to support investment decision making, and ultimately policy recommendations for vaccine use. In addition, a comprehensive assessment of the value proposition for vaccines against these pathogens is needed and will be strengthened if the long-term health consequences associated with diarrhea and dysentery due to these pathogens are better defined.