Progressive calibration and averaging for tandem mass spectrometry statistical confidence estimation: Why settle for a single decoy?

Estimating the false discovery rate (FDR) among a list of tandem mass spectrum identifications is mostly done through target-decoy competition (TDC). Here we offer two new methods that can use an arbitrarily small number of additional randomly drawn decoy databases to improve TDC. Specifically, "Partial Calibration" utilizes a new meta-scoring scheme that allows us to gradually benefit from the increase in the number of identifications calibration yields and "Averaged TDC" (a-TDC) reduces the liberal bias of TDC for small FDR values and its variability throughout. Combining a-TDC with "Progressive Calibration" (PC), which attempts to find the "right" number of decoys required for calibration we see substantial impact in real datasets: when analyzing the Plasmodium falciparum data it typically yields almost the entire 17% increase in discoveries that "full calibration" yields (at FDR level 0.05) using 60 times fewer decoys. Our methods are further validated using a novel realistic simulation scheme and importantly, they apply more generally to the problem of controlling the FDR among discoveries from searching an incomplete database.