A Switching Observer for Human Perceptual Estimation.

Human perceptual inference has been fruitfully characterized as a normative Bayesian process in which sensory evidence and priors are multiplicatively combined to form posteriors from which sensory estimates can be optimally read out. We tested whether this basic Bayesian framework could explain human subjects' behavior in two estimation tasks in which we varied the strength of sensory evidence (motion coherence or contrast) and priors (set of directions or orientations). We found that despite excellent agreement of estimates mean and variability with a Basic Bayesian observer model, the estimate distributions were bimodal with unpredicted modes near the prior and the likelihood. We developed a model that switched between prior and sensory evidence rather than integrating the two, which better explained the data than the Basic and several other Bayesian observers. Our data suggest that humans can approximate Bayesian optimality with a switching heuristic that forgoes multiplicative combination of priors and likelihoods.