| Literature DB >> 29234665 |
Rene Antonio Leiva1, Thomas Paul Bouchard2, Saman Hasan Abdullah3,4,5,6, René Ecochard3,4,5,6.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To study the best possible luteinizing hormone (LH) threshold to predict ovulation within the 24, 48, and 72 h.Entities:
Keywords: fertile window; fertility awareness methods; infertility; luteinizing hormone; natural family planning; ovulation; ovulation predictor kits; urine
Year: 2017 PMID: 29234665 PMCID: PMC5712333 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2017.00320
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Public Health ISSN: 2296-2565
Women and cycle characteristics for those with available luteinizing hormone results.
| Characteristics | Mean (±SEM) | Minimum | Maximum |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age (years) | 32.43 (0.58) | 19 | 44 |
| Age at Menarche (years) | 13.23 (0.16) | 9 | 17 |
| Body mass index (kg/m2) | 21.23 (0.26) | 17.12 | 28.34 |
| Physical activity (hours/week) | 1.13 (0.22) | 0 | 9 |
| Regular smokers (%) | 11% | ||
| Vegans (%) | 4% | ||
| Past use of oral contraception (%) | 35% | ||
| Cycle length (days) | 28.07 (0.16) | 22 | 44 |
| Follicular phase (days) | 14.76 (0.17) | 9 | 33 |
| Luteal phase (days) | 13.35 (0.10) | 7 | 17 |
Figure 1Number of ovulations (N) across the days of the menstrual cycle.
Figure 2Nine ovulation predictive scenarios for the proportion of true-positive rates to false-positive rates from days 9 to 17 of the cycles.
Figure 3The receiver operating characteristic curves for one random positive luteinizing hormone test to predict ovulation within 24 h-across the menstrual cycle.
Figure 4The receiver operating characteristic curves for one random positive luteinizing hormone (LH) test to predict ovulation within 24 h-across the menstrual cycle, applying different ranges on the number of daily tests used.
Positive benefit net cost for predicting ovulation within the first 24 h.
| First day of test utilization | Last day of test utilization | Threshold (mIU/ml) | Positive benefit net cost | Sensitivity | Specificity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 0.54 | 0.78 |
| 7 | 20 | 20 | 6 | 0.37 | 0.88 |
| 7 | 20 | 25 | 6 | 0.35 | 0.89 |
| 7 | 20 | 30 | 6 | 0.35 | 0.89 |
| 7 | 20 | 35 | 5 | 0.24 | 0.94 |
| 7 | 20 | 40 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.96 |
The sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV), confidence intervals (CI), negative predictive value (NPV), likelihood ratios +’ve (LR+) and likelihood ratios −’ve (LR−) for predicting ovulation within 24 h at 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, and 40 mIU/ml thresholds on the 11th day of the cycle.
| Threshold (mIU/ml) | Sn (CI) | Sp (CI) | PPV | NPV | LR+ | LR− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.23 (0.08–0.50) | 0.99 (0.97–1.00) | 0.23 | 0.99 | 20.62 | 0.78 |
| 35 | 0.31 (0.13–0.58) | 0.99 (0.97–1.00) | 0.31 | 0.99 | 27.49 | 0.97 |
| 30 | 0.46 (0.23–0.71) | 0.99 (0.96–0.99) | 0.60 | 0.97 | 30.92 | 0.55 |
| 25 | 0.54 (0.29–0.77) | 0.97 (0.95–0.99) | 0.50 | 0.98 | 20.62 | 0.47 |
| 20 | 0.54 (0.29–0.77) | 0.96 (0.93–0.98) | 0.41 | 0.98 | 14.43 | 0.48 |
| 15 | 0.54 (0.29–0.77) | 0.94 (0.91–0.98) | 0.32 | 0.98 | 9.62 | 0.49 |
Figure 5Number of cycles with one positive day [luteinizing hormone (LH) threshold ≥25 mlU/ml] followed by three consecutive negative days (LH thresholds ≤25 mlU/ml) in relation to ultrasound day of ovulation (0 US-DO).
The sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and confidence intervals (CI) for predicting ovulation within 24 h by the use of Peak-fertility type mucus (Score 4), luteinizing hormone test or the combination of both from days 7 to 20 of the menstrual cycle.
| Scenario | Se (CI) | Sp (CI) | PPV (CI) | NPV (CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First day of occurrence of Score 4 mucus | 0.731 (0.675–0.781) | 0.773 (0.759–0.787) | 0.197 (0.173–0.223) | 0.974 (0.968–0.979) |
| Last day of occurrence of Score 4 mucus | 0.284 (0.230– 0.345) | 0.948 (0.940–0.955) | 0.293 (0.237–0.355) | 0.946 (0.937–0.953) |
| First day of LH ≥ 25 | 0.297 (0.246–0.354) | 0.912 (0.902–0.920) | 0.202 (0.166–0.244) | 0.945 (0.937–0.952) |
| First day of occurrence of Score 4 mucus and LH ≥ 25 | 0.223 (0.177–0.276) | 0.971 (0.966–0.976) | 0.370 (0.300–0.446) | 0.943 (0.935–0.950) |
| Last day of occurrence of Score 4 mucus and LH ≥ 25 | 0.100 (0.070–0.142) | 0.986 (0.981–0.989) | 0.342 (0.247–0.452) | 0.936 (0.928–0.943) |
Multivariate regression analysis of body mass index (BMI), age, past used of oral contraception, sport activity, and smoking on the natural logarithm of urinary LH levels from days 7 to 20 of the menstrual cycle.
| Variable | Coefficient (95% coefficient interval) | |
|---|---|---|
| Body mass index | −0.05 (−0.09 to −0.01) | 0.020 |
| Age | 0.17 (−0.01 to 0.36) | 0.068 |
| Contraception | 0.20 (−0.03 to 0.43) | 0.088 |
| Sport activity | −0.20 (–0.44 to 0.04) | 0.105 |
| Currently smoking | 0.16 (−0.19 to 0.51) | 0.369 |