Prognosis and prognostic factors in chronic pancreatitis.

To evaluate the prognosis and prognostic factors of chronic pancreatitis, 84 patients with alcoholic chronic pancreatitis and 51 with nonalcoholic chronic pancreatitis have been followed for 1-21 years (average of 7.1 years). The follow-up period was defined as the period from diagnosis to death in those who died and to the present in those still alive. The following conclusions were obtained. (1) Patients with alcoholic chronic pancreatitis showed a significantly higher mortality rate (26.2%) and cancer death rate (8.3%) than the age- and sex-matched population. In patients with nonalcoholic chronic pancreatitis, however, the difference did not reach the level of statistical significance, although both rates tended to be higher. (2) Patients with alcoholic chronic pancreatitis showed a significantly poorer prognosis than those with nonalcoholic chronic pancreatitis. (3) Frequent causes of death in chronic pancreatitis were cancer (11 cases) and diabetes-associated conditions (renal failure in three cases, intractable pneumonia in one, hypoglycemic shock in two, and myocardial infarction in two). Death directly from pancreatitis was observed in four. (4) Unfavorable prognostic factors in alcoholic chronic pancreatitis included heavy drinking, continuance of drinking after diagnosis, smoking, insulin-dependent diabetes, and an advanced age. In nonalcoholic chronic pancreatitis, however, patients' age was the only significant prognostic factor; smoking did not reach the level of statistical significance, although it tended to lead to a poorer prognosis.