Heterogeneity in the probability of HIV transmission per sexual contact: the case of male-to-female transmission in penile-vaginal intercourse.

Recent studies have indicated variation in the infectivity beta of HIV among heterosexual couples. We represent this heterogeneity by modelling beta as a random variable. Using data on the number of contacts and seroconversion of couples, we fit the model by maximum-likelihood estimation with a beta distribution and a discrete distribution for beta. The estimates indicate the heterogeneity is extreme. The limitations of the model and the implications of the results for epidemiologic spread and further research are discussed.