Does disease cause vaccination? Disease outbreaks and vaccination response.

Parental fear of vaccines has limited vaccination rates in the United States. I test whether disease outbreaks increase vaccination using a new dataset of county-level disease and vaccination data. I find that pertussis (whooping cough) outbreaks in a county decrease the share of unvaccinated children entering kindergarten. These responses do not reflect changes in the future disease risk. I argue that these facts are best fit by a model in which individuals are both myopic and irrational. This suggests that better promotion of information about outbreaks could enhance the response.