Adam S Vaughan1, Matthew D Ritchey2, Judy Hannan2, Michael R Kramer3, Michele Casper2. 1. Division for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA. Electronic address: xha4@cdc.gov. 2. Division for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA. 3. Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA.
Abstract
PURPOSE: Recent national trends show decelerating declines in heart disease mortality, especially among younger adults. National trends may mask variation by geography and age. We examined recent county-level trends in heart disease mortality by age group. METHODS: Using a Bayesian statistical model and National Vital Statistics Systems data, we estimated overall rates and percent change in heart disease mortality from 2010 through 2015 for four age groups (35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65-74 years) in 3098 US counties. RESULTS: Nationally, heart disease mortality declined in every age group except ages 55-64 years. County-level trends by age group showed geographically widespread increases, with 52.3%, 58.5%, 69.1%, and 42.0% of counties experiencing increases with median percent changes of 0.6%, 2.2%, 4.6%, and -1.5% for ages 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65-74 years, respectively. Increases were more likely in counties with initially high heart disease mortality and outside large metropolitan areas. CONCLUSIONS: Recent national trends have masked local increases in heart disease mortality. These increases, especially among adults younger than age 65 years, represent challenges to communities across the country. Reversing these trends may require intensification of primary and secondary prevention-focusing policies, strategies, and interventions on younger populations, especially those living in less urban counties. Published by Elsevier Inc.
PURPOSE: Recent national trends show decelerating declines in heart disease mortality, especially among younger adults. National trends may mask variation by geography and age. We examined recent county-level trends in heart disease mortality by age group. METHODS: Using a Bayesian statistical model and National Vital Statistics Systems data, we estimated overall rates and percent change in heart disease mortality from 2010 through 2015 for four age groups (35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65-74 years) in 3098 US counties. RESULTS: Nationally, heart disease mortality declined in every age group except ages 55-64 years. County-level trends by age group showed geographically widespread increases, with 52.3%, 58.5%, 69.1%, and 42.0% of counties experiencing increases with median percent changes of 0.6%, 2.2%, 4.6%, and -1.5% for ages 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65-74 years, respectively. Increases were more likely in counties with initially high heart disease mortality and outside large metropolitan areas. CONCLUSIONS: Recent national trends have masked local increases in heart disease mortality. These increases, especially among adults younger than age 65 years, represent challenges to communities across the country. Reversing these trends may require intensification of primary and secondary prevention-focusing policies, strategies, and interventions on younger populations, especially those living in less urban counties. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Entities:
Keywords:
Age groups; Geography; Heart diseases; Mortality decline; Mortality rates
Authors: Kevin A Matthews; Janet B Croft; Yong Liu; Hua Lu; Dafna Kanny; Anne G Wheaton; Timothy J Cunningham; Laura Kettel Khan; Ralph S Caraballo; James B Holt; Paul I Eke; Wayne H Giles Journal: MMWR Surveill Summ Date: 2017-02-03
Authors: Earl S Ford; Umed A Ajani; Janet B Croft; Julia A Critchley; Darwin R Labarthe; Thomas E Kottke; Wayne H Giles; Simon Capewell Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 2007-06-07 Impact factor: 91.245
Authors: Will Maimaris; Jared Paty; Pablo Perel; Helena Legido-Quigley; Dina Balabanova; Robby Nieuwlaat; Martin McKee Journal: PLoS Med Date: 2013-07-30 Impact factor: 11.069
Authors: Quanhe Yang; Xin Tong; Linda Schieb; Adam Vaughan; Cathleen Gillespie; Jennifer L Wiltz; Sallyann Coleman King; Erika Odom; Robert Merritt; Yuling Hong; Mary G George Journal: MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep Date: 2017-09-08 Impact factor: 17.586
Authors: Jerry Suls; Jazmin N Mogavero; Louise Falzon; Linda S Pescatello; Emily A Hennessy; Karina W Davidson Journal: Health Psychol Rev Date: 2019-11-29
Authors: Sameed Ahmed M Khatana; Atheendar S Venkataramani; Ashwin S Nathan; Elias J Dayoub; Lauren A Eberly; Dhruv S Kazi; Robert W Yeh; Nandita Mitra; S V Subramanian; Peter W Groeneveld Journal: JAMA Date: 2021-02-02 Impact factor: 56.272
Authors: Matthew D Ritchey; Sha Maresh; Jessica McNeely; Thomas Shaffer; Sandra L Jackson; Steven J Keteyian; Clinton A Brawner; Mary A Whooley; Tiffany Chang; Haley Stolp; Linda Schieb; Janet Wright Journal: Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes Date: 2020-01-14
Authors: Rebecca A Seguin-Fowler; David Strogatz; Meredith L Graham; Galen D Eldridge; Grace A Marshall; Sara C Folta; Kristin Pullyblank; Miriam E Nelson; Lynn Paul Journal: Am J Prev Med Date: 2020-05-07 Impact factor: 5.043
Authors: Sonia Y Angell; Michael V McConnell; Cheryl A M Anderson; Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo; Douglas S Boyle; Simon Capewell; Majid Ezzati; Sarah de Ferranti; Darrell J Gaskin; Ron Z Goetzel; Mark D Huffman; Marsha Jones; Yosef M Khan; Sonia Kim; Shiriki K Kumanyika; Alexa T McCray; Robert K Merritt; Bobby Milstein; Dariush Mozaffarian; Tyler Norris; Gregory A Roth; Ralph L Sacco; Jorge F Saucedo; Christina M Shay; David Siedzik; Somava Saha; John J Warner Journal: Circulation Date: 2020-01-29 Impact factor: 29.690
Authors: David Calvin Goff; Sadiya Sana Khan; Donald Lloyd-Jones; Donna K Arnett; Mercedes R Carnethon; Darwin R Labarthe; Matthew Shane Loop; Russell V Luepker; Michael V McConnell; George A Mensah; Mahasin S Mujahid; Martin Enrique O'Flaherty; Dorairaj Prabhakaran; Véronique Roger; Wayne D Rosamond; Stephen Sidney; Gina S Wei; Janet S Wright Journal: Circulation Date: 2021-02-22 Impact factor: 29.690