BACKGROUND: We reported that a minority of patients with low-risk papillary microcarcinoma of the thyroid showed disease progression during active surveillance and that older patients had significantly lower disease progression rates than younger patients. Here, we estimated lifetime (≤85 years old) probabilities of disease progression during active surveillance according to the age at presentation based on age decade-specific disease progression rates. METHODS: From 1993-2013, 1,211 low-risk papillary microcarcinoma patients aged 20-79 years underwent active surveillance at Kuma Hospital. We calculated the disease progression rate at the 10-year point of active surveillance for each age-decade group (20s to 70s) with the Kaplan-Meier method. The lifetime disease progression probability for each age group was calculated as (1 - cumulative probability of progression-free survival calculated with age decade-specific disease progression rates) until the patients reached their 80s (i.e., 85 years on average). RESULTS: The age decade-specific disease progression rates at 10 years of active surveillance were 36.9% (20s), 13.5% (30s), 14.5% (40s), 5.6% (50s), 6.6% (60s), and 3.5% (70s); the respective lifetime disease progression probabilities were 60.3%, 37.1%, 27.3%, 14.9%, 9.9% and 3.5% according to the age at presentation. CONCLUSION: The estimated lifetime disease progression probabilities of papillary microcarcinoma during active surveillance vary greatly according to the age at presentation.
BACKGROUND: We reported that a minority of patients with low-risk papillary microcarcinoma of the thyroid showed disease progression during active surveillance and that older patients had significantly lower disease progression rates than younger patients. Here, we estimated lifetime (≤85 years old) probabilities of disease progression during active surveillance according to the age at presentation based on age decade-specific disease progression rates. METHODS: From 1993-2013, 1,211 low-risk papillary microcarcinomapatients aged 20-79 years underwent active surveillance at Kuma Hospital. We calculated the disease progression rate at the 10-year point of active surveillance for each age-decade group (20s to 70s) with the Kaplan-Meier method. The lifetime disease progression probability for each age group was calculated as (1 - cumulative probability of progression-free survival calculated with age decade-specific disease progression rates) until the patients reached their 80s (i.e., 85 years on average). RESULTS: The age decade-specific disease progression rates at 10 years of active surveillance were 36.9% (20s), 13.5% (30s), 14.5% (40s), 5.6% (50s), 6.6% (60s), and 3.5% (70s); the respective lifetime disease progression probabilities were 60.3%, 37.1%, 27.3%, 14.9%, 9.9% and 3.5% according to the age at presentation. CONCLUSION: The estimated lifetime disease progression probabilities of papillary microcarcinoma during active surveillance vary greatly according to the age at presentation.
Authors: Peter R Dixon; George Tomlinson; Jesse David Pasternak; Ozgur Mete; Chaim M Bell; Anna M Sawka; David P Goldstein; David R Urbach Journal: JAMA Oncol Date: 2019-06-01 Impact factor: 31.777
Authors: Allen S Ho; Michael Luu; Cynthia Zalt; Luc G T Morris; Irene Chen; Michelle Melany; Nabilah Ali; Chrysanta Patio; Yufei Chen; Jon Mallen St-Clair; Glenn D Braunstein; Wendy L Sacks; Zachary S Zumsteg Journal: Thyroid Date: 2019-09-24 Impact factor: 6.568
Authors: Alexandra Koshkina; Rouhi Fazelzad; Iwao Sugitani; Akira Miyauchi; Lehana Thabane; David P Goldstein; Sangeet Ghai; Anna M Sawka Journal: JAMA Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg Date: 2020-06-01 Impact factor: 6.223
Authors: Lisa M Lowenstein; Spyridon P Basourakos; Michelle D Williams; Patricia Troncoso; Justin R Gregg; Timothy C Thompson; Jeri Kim Journal: Nat Rev Clin Oncol Date: 2019-03 Impact factor: 66.675