Bovine tuberculosis in Northern Ireland: quantification of the population disease-level effect from cattle leaving herds detected as a source of infection.

Determination of the proportion of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) breakdowns attributed to a herd purchasing infected animals has not been previously quantified using data from the Animal and Public Health Information System (APHIS) database in Northern Ireland. We used a case-control study design to account for the infection process occurring in the disclosing bTB breakdown herds. Cases (N = 6926) were cattle moving to a future confirmed bTB breakdown where they would disclose as a confirmed bTB reactor or a Lesion at Routine Slaughter (LRS). Controls (N = 303 499) were cattle moving to a future confirmed bTB breakdown where they did not become a bTB reactor or LRS. Our study showed that the cattle leaving herds which disclosed bTB within 450 days had an increased odds of becoming a confirmed bTB reactor or LRS compared with the cattle which left herds that remained free for 450 days (odds ratio (OR) = 2·09: 95% CI 1·96-2·22). Of the 12 060 confirmed bTB breakdowns included in our study (2007-2015 inclusive), 31% (95% CI 29·8-31·5) contained a confirmed bTB reactor(s) or LRS(s) at the disclosing test which entered the herd within the previous 450 days. After controlling for the infection process occurring in the disclosing bTB breakdown herd, our study showed that 6·4% (95% CI 5·9-6·8) of bTB breakdowns in Northern Ireland were directly attributable to the movement of infected animals.