The risk of a positive test for bovine tuberculosis in cattle purchased from herds with and without a recent history of bovine tuberculosis in Ireland.

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to assess if cattle sold from Irish dairy herds within 7 months of herd de-restriction (clearance to trade) from a bovine-tuberculosis (BTB) episode had an excess risk of testing positive for BTB during the following 2 years, and to determine other risk factors associated with this outcome. If possible, a predictive metric for herds at high risk of selling future BTB-positive cattle would be generated. The unexposed cohort included all cattle sold within 7 months of the annual herd test in a random sample of dairy herds that did not test positive for BTB in 2003. The exposed cohort consisted of all cattle sold within 7 months of the date of de-restriction in all dairy herds that cleared a BTB episode in 2003. Only cattle sold from herds that were initially found to test positive for BTB using the single intradermal comparative tuberculin test (SICTT)-and not due to discovery of a BTB-positive animal at slaughter-were included as exposed cattle. To aid in the development of a predictive metric, the exposed cohort was subcategorized based on the number of reactors to the SICTT in the herd of origin during the BTB episode immediately prior to sale. The final exposure categories of 0 (unexposed), 1-7, and >or=8 total reactors were considered the unexposed, mildly exposed, and severely exposed cohorts, respectively. A multivariable logistic regression model was fit to the final BTB status of the animal using a generalized estimating equation method (GEE), assuming an exchangeable correlation structure of animals within herds, and using robust standard errors. Exposure level and the other available herd- and animal-level information were modeled. After controlling for other risk factors including the size of the herd of origin and the sex and age of the animal, the three-level exposure variable significantly improved the model (based on a change in Quasi-Akaike Information Criteria of 2.2) and demonstrated a trend of increasing risk of a future positive BTB test with increasing exposure category. The severely exposed cohort of animals had significantly higher risk of a future positive BTB test than the unexposed cohort (OR=1.78, p=0.030).