Influences of environmental factors on biomass of phytoplankton in the northern part of Tai Lake, China, from 2000 to 2012.

Long-term (2000 to 2012) monthly data on communities of phytoplankton, and environmental variables were measured in water collected from Meiliang Bay and Wuli Lake of Tai Lake, China. Redundancy analysis (RDA) was conducted to explore relationships between the phytoplankton communities and environmental variables. Change points for concentrations of nutrients, which serve as early warnings of state shifts in lacustrine ecosystems, were identified using the Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN). The biomass of phytoplankton was positively correlated with the concentrations of total phosphorus (TP), suspended solids (SS), water temperature (WT), and pH but negatively correlated with the N/P ratio (by mass) and Secchi disk depth (SD). Furthermore, TP, rather than other factors, was a controlling factor limiting the primary production of phytoplankton in most of this region. The change points for concentrations of TP controlling the occurrences of sensitive and tolerant taxa were 56.1 and 103.5 μg TP/L, respectively. These results imply that an abrupt change in this lacustrine ecosystem has occurred in most parts of the study area, and the turbid state of this lake can be altered by reducing TP loading. This study provides an alternative ecological method for exploring the production of algal blooms and could advance the understanding of HABs.