R Clèries1,2, A Ameijide3, R Marcos-Gragera4,5,6, L Pareja7, M Carulla3, M-L Vilardell4,5, L Esteban7, M Buxó8, J-A Espinàs7, A Puigdefàbregas9, J Ribes7,10, A Izquierdo4,5,11, J Galceran3,12, J M Borrás7,10. 1. Pla Director d'Oncologia (GENCAT), IDIBELL, Hospital Duran i Reynals, Gran Via 199-203 1ª planta, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908, Barcelona, Spain. r.cleries@iconcologia.net. 2. Departament de Ciències Clíniques, Universitat de Barcelona, Campus de Bellvitge, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain. r.cleries@iconcologia.net. 3. Registre de Càncer de Tarragona, Fundació Lliga per a la Investigació i Prevenció del Càncer (FUNCA)-IISPV, Reus, Tarragona, Spain. 4. Unitat d'Epidemiologia i Registre del Càncer de Girona (UERGG), Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica Girona Josep Trueta (IDIBGI), Girona, Spain. 5. Institut Català d'Oncologia (ICO), Girona, Spain. 6. Departament d'Infermeria, Universitat de Girona (UdG), Girona, Spain. 7. Pla Director d'Oncologia (GENCAT), IDIBELL, Hospital Duran i Reynals, Gran Via 199-203 1ª planta, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908, Barcelona, Spain. 8. Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica de Girona, IDIBGI, C/Dr.Castany s/n, Edifici M2, Parc Hospitalari Martí i Julià, 17190, Salt, Spain. 9. Registre de Mortalitat, Direcció General de Planificació en Salut, Departament de Salut, Generalitat de Catalunya, Travessera de les Corts, 131-159, 08028, Barcelona, Spain. 10. Departament de Ciències Clíniques, Universitat de Barcelona, Campus de Bellvitge, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain. 11. Departament d'Oncología Médica, Institut Català d'Oncologia, Hospital Universitari Doctor Josep Trueta, Girona, Spain. 12. Departament de Medicina i Cirurgia, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Reus, Tarragona, Spain.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Developing effective cancer control programmes requires information on the future cancer burden in an ageing population. In our study we predicted the burden of cancer in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025. METHODS: Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the burden of cancer from 2015 to 2025 using incidence data from the Girona and Tarragona cancer registries and cancer mortality data from the Catalan mortality registry. Using the Bashir-Estève method, we divided the net change in the number of cases between 2015 and 2025 into changes due to population size (S), cancer risk (R) and age (A) distribution. RESULTS: By 2025, there will be 21,743 new cancer cases in men (40% aged > 74 years) and 17,268 in women (37% aged > 74 years). More than 40% of the new cases will be diagnosed among population aged 74 and older in prostate, colorectal, lung, bladder, pancreatic and stomach cancers in men, and in colorectal, pancreatic and bladder cancers and leukaemia in women. During 2015-2025, the number of new diagnoses will increase by 5.5% in men (A + R + S = 18.1% - 13.3% + 0.7% = 5.5%) and 11.9% in women (A + R + S = 12.4% - 1.1% + 0.6% = 11.9%). Overall cancer mortality rates will continue to decrease during 2015-2025. Lung cancer will be the most lethal cancer among men (N = 2705) and women (N = 1174). CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the number of cancer cases in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025 will mostly affect the elderly, prompting the need for increased collaboration between geriatricians and oncologists.
BACKGROUND: Developing effective cancer control programmes requires information on the future cancer burden in an ageing population. In our study we predicted the burden of cancer in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025. METHODS: Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the burden of cancer from 2015 to 2025 using incidence data from the Girona and Tarragona cancer registries and cancer mortality data from the Catalan mortality registry. Using the Bashir-Estève method, we divided the net change in the number of cases between 2015 and 2025 into changes due to population size (S), cancer risk (R) and age (A) distribution. RESULTS: By 2025, there will be 21,743 new cancer cases in men (40% aged > 74 years) and 17,268 in women (37% aged > 74 years). More than 40% of the new cases will be diagnosed among population aged 74 and older in prostate, colorectal, lung, bladder, pancreatic and stomach cancers in men, and in colorectal, pancreatic and bladder cancers and leukaemia in women. During 2015-2025, the number of new diagnoses will increase by 5.5% in men (A + R + S = 18.1% - 13.3% + 0.7% = 5.5%) and 11.9% in women (A + R + S = 12.4% - 1.1% + 0.6% = 11.9%). Overall cancer mortality rates will continue to decrease during 2015-2025. Lung cancer will be the most lethal cancer among men (N = 2705) and women (N = 1174). CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the number of cancer cases in Catalonia from 2015 to 2025 will mostly affect the elderly, prompting the need for increased collaboration between geriatricians and oncologists.
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