V A McCormack1, P Boffetta. 1. Section of Environment and Radiation, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The global burden of cancer is projected to increase from 13.3 to 21.4 million incident cases between 2010 and 2030 due to demographic changes alone, dominated by a growing burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Lifestyle risk factors for cancer are also changing in these countries and may further influence this burden. DESIGN: We consider examples of changes already occurring in population-level distributions of tobacco and alcohol consumption, body weight, and reproductive lives of women to gauge the magnitude of their projected impact on cancer incidence in future decades. RESULTS: Trends in lifestyle factors vary greatly between settings and by sex. Some common trends point to considerable increases in cancers of the (i) lung in men due to tobacco smoking; (ii) upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) due to increasing tobacco and alcohol consumption, worse in men; (iii) colon from increasing body mass index, and alcohol and tobacco consumption; and (iv) in women, breast due particularly to consistent international trends of younger age at menarche, smaller family size, and, at postmenopausal ages, increasing body weight. CONCLUSIONS: In many LMICs, the future cancer burden will be worsened by changing lifestyles. Affected common cancer sites likely to experience the largest increases are lung, colon, UADT, and breast.
BACKGROUND: The global burden of cancer is projected to increase from 13.3 to 21.4 million incident cases between 2010 and 2030 due to demographic changes alone, dominated by a growing burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Lifestyle risk factors for cancer are also changing in these countries and may further influence this burden. DESIGN: We consider examples of changes already occurring in population-level distributions of tobacco and alcohol consumption, body weight, and reproductive lives of women to gauge the magnitude of their projected impact on cancer incidence in future decades. RESULTS: Trends in lifestyle factors vary greatly between settings and by sex. Some common trends point to considerable increases in cancers of the (i) lung in men due to tobacco smoking; (ii) upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) due to increasing tobacco and alcohol consumption, worse in men; (iii) colon from increasing body mass index, and alcohol and tobacco consumption; and (iv) in women, breast due particularly to consistent international trends of younger age at menarche, smaller family size, and, at postmenopausal ages, increasing body weight. CONCLUSIONS: In many LMICs, the future cancer burden will be worsened by changing lifestyles. Affected common cancer sites likely to experience the largest increases are lung, colon, UADT, and breast.
Authors: J M Mubiligi; B Hedt-Gauthier; T Mpunga; N Tapela; P Okao; A D Harries; M E Edginton; C Driscoll; L Mugabo; R Riviello; L N Shulman Journal: Public Health Action Date: 2014-06-21
Authors: Kevin D Shield; D Maxwell Parkin; David C Whiteman; Jürgen Rehm; Vivian Viallon; Claire Marant Micallef; Paolo Vineis; Lesley Rushton; Freddie Bray; Isabelle Soerjomataram Journal: Curr Epidemiol Rep Date: 2016-08-01
Authors: R Clèries; A Ameijide; R Marcos-Gragera; L Pareja; M Carulla; M-L Vilardell; L Esteban; M Buxó; J-A Espinàs; A Puigdefàbregas; J Ribes; A Izquierdo; J Galceran; J M Borrás Journal: Clin Transl Oncol Date: 2017-10-12 Impact factor: 3.405