| Literature DB >> 28980407 |
Michael C Repka1, Nima Aghdam1, Andrew W Karlin1, Keith R Unger1.
Abstract
Anal cancer is a relatively rare malignancy, and a minority of patients present with metastatic disease in the United States. The National Cancer Database (NCDB) was used to identify factors associated with metastatic disease at presentation and evaluate the role of pelvic radiotherapy in these patients. The NCDB was queried for patients with squamous cell cancer of the anus diagnosed between 2004 and 2013. Patients were stratified by clinical stage at diagnosis, and a binary logistic regression model was created to identify factors associated with metastatic disease at diagnosis. A secondary metastatic cohort was generated and a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was created to identify factors associated with improved survival. To validate findings, propensity-score matching was performed to generate a 1:1 paired dataset stratified by receipt of pelvic radiotherapy. The primary analysis cohort consisted of 28,500 patients. Facility location, male gender, and lack of insurance were confirmed as independent risk factors for metastatic disease. The metastatic cohort consisted of 1264 patients. Multivariable analysis confirmed female sex, possession of a private or Medicare insurance plan, pelvic radiotherapy, and chemotherapy as independent predictors of improved survival. A propensity-score matched cohort of 730 patients was generated. The median survival was 17.6 months in patients who received radiotherapy versus 14.5 months in those who did not (P < 0.01). In this cohort, male gender and lack of insurance were associated with metastatic disease at presentation. Furthermore, a significant benefit was associated with the use of pelvic radiotherapy. Future prospective research is warranted to confirm these findings.Entities:
Keywords: zzm321990NCDBzzm321990; social determinants of health; Anal cancer; metastatic disease; radiotherapy
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2017 PMID: 28980407 PMCID: PMC5673908 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.1203
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cancer Med ISSN: 2045-7634 Impact factor: 4.452
Figure 1CONSORT schema.
Baseline patient characteristics for the primary cohort, stratified by AJCC stage at diagnosis
| Stages I–IIIB (%) | Stage IV (%) |
| |
|---|---|---|---|
| Facility type | 0.016 | ||
| Community Cancer Program | 2997 (11.2) | 204 (11.5) | |
| Comprehensive Community Cancer Program | 12067 (45.1) | 734 (41.4) | |
| Academic/Research Program | 8845 (33.1) | 643 (36.4) | |
| Integrated Network Cancer Program | 2824 (10.6) | 186 (10.5) | |
| Facility location | <0.01 | ||
| New England | 1558 (5.8) | 77 (4.4) | |
| Middle Atlantic | 3920 (14.7) | 281 (15.9) | |
| South Atlantic | 6051 (22.6) | 375 (21.2) | |
| East North Central | 4734 (17.7) | 297 (16.8) | |
| East South Central | 1794 (6.7) | 142 (8.0) | |
| West North Central | 2005 (7.5) | 110 (6.2) | |
| West South Central | 1657 (6.2) | 148 (8.4) | |
| Mountain | 1256 (4.7) | 89 (5.0) | |
| Pacific | 3758 (14.1) | 248 (14.0) | |
| Gender | <0.01 | ||
| Male | 8643 (32.3) | 633 (35.8) | |
| Female | 18090 (67.7) | 1134 (64.2) | |
| Ethnicity | 0.053 | ||
| White | 23503 (87.9) | 1516 (85.8) | |
| Black | 2590 (9.7) | 197 (11.1) | |
| Other | 408 (1.5) | 36 (2.0) | |
| Unknown | 232 (0.9) | 18 (1.0) | |
| Age | 0.548 | ||
| <50 | 4712 (17.6) | 310 (17.5) | |
| 50–59 | 8937 (33.4) | 580 (32.8) | |
| 60–69 | 6830 (25.5) | 478 (27.1) | |
| 70+ | 6254 (23.4) | 399 (22.6) | |
| Charlson comorbidity score | 0.605 | ||
| 0 | 21416 (80.1) | 1429 (80.9) | |
| 1 | 3427 (12.8) | (12.0) | |
| 2+ | 1890 (7.1) | (7.1) | |
| Demographic area | 0.064 | ||
| Metropolitan | 22720 (85.0) | 1536 (86.9) | |
| Urban | 3580 (13.4) | 210 (11.9) | |
| Rural | 433 (1.6) | 21 (1.2) | |
| Income | 0.010 | ||
| <$38,000 | 5114 (19.1) | 386 (21.8) | |
| $38,000–$47,999 | 6554 (24.5) | 446 (25.2) | |
| $48,000–$62,999 | 7091 (26.5) | 458 (25.9) | |
| $63,000 + | 7974 (29.8) | 477 (27.0) | |
| Percent without high school diploma | <0.01 | ||
| 21%+ | 4516 (16.9) | 343 (19.4) | |
| 13.0–20.9% | 7275 (27.2) | 520 (29.4) | |
| 7.0–12.9% | 8641 (32.3) | 536 (30.3) | |
| <7.0% | 6301 (23.6) | 368 (20.8) | |
| Insurance status | <0.01 | ||
| Not insured | 1472 (5.5) | 129 (7.3) | |
| Private insurance/managed care | 12007 (44.9) | 702 (39.7) | |
| Medicaid | 2415 (9.0) | 230 (13.0) | |
| Medicare | 10413 (39.0) | 681 (38.5) | |
| Other Government | 426 (1.6) | 25 (1.4) | |
Predictors of clinical AJCC stage IV disease at diagnosis. Statistically significant factors from Table 1 were included in a multivariable binary logistic regression model
| Odds Ratio | 95% CI |
| |
|---|---|---|---|
| Facility type | |||
| Community Cancer Program | 1.000 | – | – |
| Comprehensive Community Cancer Program | 0.916 | 0.779–1.078 | 0.292 |
| Academic/Research Program | 1.059 | 0.898–1.249 | 0.495 |
| Integrated Network Cancer Program | 0.985 | 0.799–1.213 | 0.885 |
| Facility location | |||
| New England | 1.000 | – | – |
| Middle Atlantic | 1.391 | 1.072–1.805 | 0.013 |
| South Atlantic | 1.217 | 0.941–1.573 | 0.134 |
| East North Central | 1.231 | 0.949–1.598 | 0.117 |
| East South Central | 1.516 | 1.132–2.030 | 0.005 |
| West North Central | 1.100 | 0.814–1.487 | 0.535 |
| West South Central | 1.688 | 1.263–2.254 | <0.01 |
| Mountain | 1.458 | 1.062–2.003 | 0.020 |
| Pacific | 1.346 | 1.034–1.753 | 0.027 |
| Gender | |||
| Male | 1.000 |
|
|
| Female | 0.895 | 0.809–0.991 | 0.034 |
| Insurance status | |||
| Not insured | 1.000 | – | – |
| Private insurance/managed care | 0.722 | 0.592–0.882 | <0.01 |
| Medicaid | 1.106 | 0.880–1.389 | 0.388 |
| Medicare | 0.795 | 0.652–0.970 | 0.024 |
| Other Government | 0.675 | 0.434–1.052 | 0.082 |
| Median income | |||
| <$38,000 | 1.000 | – | – |
| $38,000–$47,999 | 0.974 | 0.836–1.135 | 0.736 |
| $48,000–$62,999 | 0.964 | 0.818–1.137 | 0.664 |
| >$63,000 | 0.949 | 0.783–1.149 | 0.590 |
| Percent without high school diploma | |||
| ≥21% | 1.000 | – | – |
| 13.0–20.9% | 1.018 | 0.874–1.185 | 0.821 |
| 7.0–12.9% | 0.945 | 0.797–1.122 | 0.521 |
| <7.0% | 0.919 | 0.750–1.128 | 0.420 |
Odds ratios indicate the relative odds of presenting with metastatic disease compared to the reference group.
Figure 2Regional variation in incidence of metastatic disease at diagnosis in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the anus.
Figure 3Kaplan–Meier survival curves for patients presenting with metastatic disease, stratified by receipt of pelvic radiotherapy. The median OS was 21.6 months versus 12.5 months in favor of pelvic RT in the unadjusted cohort (left, P < 0.01). The median OS was 17.6 months versus 14.5 months in favor of pelvic RT in the propensity‐score matched cohort (right, P < 0.01).
Baseline patient characteristics for the unadjusted and propensity‐score matched metastatic cohorts, stratified by receipt of pelvic radiotherapy
| Unadjusted Cohort (n = 1264) | PSM Cohort (n = 730) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Pelvic RT N (%) | Pelvic RT N (%) |
| No Pelvic RT N (%) | Pelvic RT N (%) |
| |
| Facility type | 0.073 | 0.630 | ||||
| Community Cancer | 51 (11.0) | 94 (11.7) | 45 (12.3) | 42 (11.5) | ||
| Comprehensive Community | 181 (39.2) | 359 (44.8) | 142 (38.9) | 153 (41.9) | ||
| Academic/Research | 184 (39.8) | 261 (32.5) | 146 (40.0) | 132 (36.2) | ||
| Integrated Network Cancer | 46 (10.0) | 88 (11.0) | 32 (8.8) | 38 (10.4) | ||
| Gender | 0.024 | 0.702 | ||||
| Male | 183 (39.6) | 267 (33.3) | 134 (36.7) | 139 (38.1) | ||
| Female | 279 (60.4) | 535 (66.7) | 231 (63.3) | 226 (61.9) | ||
| Insurance status | 0.328 | 0.431 | ||||
| Not insured | 33 (7.1) | 75 (9.4) | 29 (7.9) | 28 (7.7) | ||
| Private insurance | 182 (39.4) | 319 (39.8) | 158 (43.3) | 150 (41.1) | ||
| Medicaid | 64 (13.9) | 97 (12.1) | 44 (12.1) | 40 (11.0) | ||
| Medicare | 179 (38.7) | 296 (36.9) | 130 (35.6) | 136 (37.3) | ||
| Other Government | 4 (0.9) | 15 (1.9) | 4 (1.1) | 11 (3.0) | ||
| Income | 0.683 | 0.615 | ||||
| <$38,000 | 91 (19.7) | 180 (22.4) | 66 (18.1) | 78 (21.4) | ||
| $38,000–$47,999 | 118 (25.5) | 198 (24.7) | 89 (24.4) | 89 (24.4) | ||
| $48,000–$62,999 | 127 (27.5) | 220 (27.4) | 113 (31.0) | 100 (27.4) | ||
| $63,000+ | 126 (27.4) | 204 (25.4) | 97 (26.6) | 98 (26.8) | ||
| Percent without high school diploma | 0.477 | 0.349 | ||||
| ≥21% | 81 (17.5) | 165 (20.6) | 61 (16.7) | 77 (21.1) | ||
| 13.0–20.9% | 143 (31.0) | 232 (28.9) | 109 (29.9) | 111 (30.4) | ||
| 7.0–12.9% | 137 (29.7) | 246 (30.7) | 111 (30.4) | 94 (25.8) | ||
| <7.0% | 101 (21.9) | 159 (19.8) | 84 (23.0) | 83 (22.7) | ||
| Charlson comorbidity Score | 0.012 | 0.898 | ||||
| 0 | 355 (76.8) | 670 (83.5) | 291 (79.7) | 292 (80.0) | ||
| 1 | 66 (14.3) | 86 (10.7) | 46 (12.6) | 48 (13.2) | ||
| 2+ | 41 (8.9) | 46 (5.7) | 28 (7.7) | 25 (6.8) | ||
| Ethnicity | 0.780 | 0.835 | ||||
| White | 398 (86.1) | 689 (85.9) | 318 (87.1) | 312 (85.5) | ||
| Black | 46 (10.0) | 89 (11.1) | 33 (9.0) | 38 (10.4) | ||
| Other | 11 (2.4) | 15 (1.9) | 10 (2.7) | 9 (2.5) | ||
| Unknown | 7 (1.5) | 9 (1.1) | 4 (1.1) | 6 (1.6) | ||
| Age | 0.839 | 0.588 | ||||
| <50 | 87 (18.8) | 140 (17.5) | 66 (18.1) | 69 (18.9) | ||
| 50–59 | 148 (32.0) | 265 (33.0) | 126 (34.5) | 117 (32.1) | ||
| 60–69 | 119 (25.8) | 219 (27.3) | 97 (26.6) | 89 (24.4) | ||
| 70+ | 108 (23.4) | 178 (22.2) | 76 (20.8) | 90 (24.7) | ||
| Demographic area | 0.865 | 0.657 | ||||
| Metropolitan | 402 (87.0) | 692 (86.3) | 315 (86.3) | 313 (85.8) | ||
| Urban | 54 (11.7) | 101 (12.6) | 46 (12.6) | 50 (13.7) | ||
| Rural | 6 (1.3) | 9 (1.1) | 4 (1.1) | 2 (0.5) | ||
| AJCC T Stage | <0.01 | 0.542 | ||||
| ≤T2 | 95 (20.6) | 210 (26.2) | 86 (23.6) | 86 (23.6) | ||
| T3–T4 | 166 (35.9) | 428 (53.4) | 148 (40.5) | 161 (44.1) | ||
| Tx | 201 (43.5) | 164 (20.4) | 131 (35.9) | 118 (32.3) | ||
| Abdominoperineal resection | 0.025 | 0.700 | ||||
| No | 438 (94.8) | 780 (97.3) | 350 (95.9) | 352 (96.4) | ||
| Yes | 24 (5.2) | 22 (2.7) | 15 (4.1) | 13 (3.6) | ||
| Chemotherapy | <0.01 | 0.350 | ||||
| No | 168 (36.4) | 67 (8.4) | 76 (20.8) | 66 (18.1) | ||
| Yes | 294 (63.6) | 735 (91.6) | 289 (79.2) | 299 (81.9) | ||
Cox proportional hazards analysis. Statistically significant predictors of overall survival on univariate analysis were incorporated into a multivariable model
| Univariate | Multivariable | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | 95% CI |
| HR | 95% CI |
| |
| Facility location | ||||||
| New England | Reference | |||||
| Middle Atlantic | 0.857 | 0.603–1.218 | 0.389 | – | – | – |
| South Atlantic | 1.068 | 0.763–1.495 | 0.700 | – | – | – |
| East North Central | 1.086 | 0.769–1.534 | 0.639 | – | – | – |
| East South Central | 0.949 | 0.646–1.395 | 0.791 | – | – | – |
| West North Central | 0.842 | 0.565–1.255 | 0.398 | – | – | – |
| West South Central | 0.960 | 0.653–1.411 | 0.834 | – | – | – |
| Mountain | 0.927 | 0.607–1.415 | 0.724 | – | – | – |
| Pacific | 1.063 | 0.748–1.509 | 0.734 | – | – | – |
| Facility type | ||||||
| Community Cancer Program | Reference | |||||
| Comprehensive Community | 0.953 | 0.769–1.181 | 0.661 | – | – | – |
| Academic/Research | 0.835 | 0.668–1.042 | 0.110 | – | – | – |
| Integrated Network | 0.978 | 0.743–1.287 | 0.875 | – | – | – |
| Gender | ||||||
| Male | Reference | |||||
| Female | 0.698 | 0.610–0.798 | <0.01 | 0.795 | 0.691–0.915 | <0.01 |
| Insurance status | ||||||
| Not insured | Reference | |||||
| Private insurance | 0.625 | 0.491–0.796 | <0.01 | 0.655 | 0.512–0.837 | <0.01 |
| Medicaid | 1.026 | 0.777–1.353 | 0.858 | 0.955 | 0.720–1.267 | 0.751 |
| Medicare | 0.959 | 0.755–1.218 | 0.732 | 0.695 | 0.529–0.912 | <0.01 |
| Other Government | 1.160 | 0.658–2.045 | 0.607 | 0.932 | 0.523–1.662 | 0.812 |
| Income | ||||||
| <$38,000 | Reference | |||||
| $38,000–$47,999 | 0.972 | 0.805–1.174 | 0.771 | 0.948 | 0.773–1.163 | 0.608 |
| $48,000–$62,999 | 0.863 | 0.716–1.041 | 0.125 | 0.895 | 0.720–1.113 | 0.319 |
| $63,000+ | 0.815 | 0.673–0.986 | 0.035 | 0.868 | 0.667–1.129 | 0.292 |
| Percent without high school diploma | ||||||
| ≥21% | Reference | |||||
| 13.0–20.9% | 1.058 | 0.876–1.278 | 0.557 | 1.096 | 0.893–1.345 | 0.380 |
| 7.0–12.9% | 0.989 | 0.819–1.194 | 0.906 | 1.091 | 0.871–1.366 | 0.449 |
| <7.0% | 0.803 | 0.651–0.990 | 0.040 | 0.981 | 0.742–1.297 | 0.894 |
| Charlson comorbidity score | ||||||
| 0 | Reference | |||||
| 1 | 1.303 | 1.071–1.585 | 0.008 | 0.995 | 0.810–1.222 | 0.961 |
| 2+ | 1.514 | 1.184–1.936 | 0.001 | 1.439 | 1.117–1.854 | <0.01 |
| Ethnicity | ||||||
| White | Reference | |||||
| Black | 1.018 | 0.821–1.263 | 0.868 | – | – | – |
| Other | 1.443 | 0.915–2.276 | 0.115 | – | – | – |
| Unknown | 0.908 | 0.487–1.695 | 0.763 | – | – | – |
| Age | ||||||
| <50 | Reference | |||||
| 50–59 | 0.961 | 0.791–1.168 | 0.692 | 1.062 | 0.871–1.295 | .550 |
| 60–69 | 1.051 | 0.859–1.287 | 0.627 | 1.149 | 0.930–1.421 | .199 |
| 70+ | 1.591 | 1.299–1.947 | <0.01 | 1.597 | 1.236–2.062 | <0.01 |
| Demographics | ||||||
| Metropolitan | Reference | |||||
| Urban | 1.335 | 1.103–1.616 | <0.01 | 1.336 | 1.093–1.632 | <0.01 |
| Rural | 1.558 | 0.901–2.697 | 0.113 | 1.457 | .831–2.554 | .189 |
| AJCC T Stage | ||||||
| ≤T2 | Reference | |||||
| T3–T4 | 1.245 | 1.054–1.470 | 0.010 | 1.314 | 1.109–1.557 | <0.01 |
| Tx | 1.403 | 1.170–1.682 | <0.01 | 1.311 | 1.088–1.579 | <0.01 |
| Pelvic radiotherapy | ||||||
| No | Reference | |||||
| Yes | 0.630 | 0.551–0.721 | <0.01 | 0.770 | 0.661–0.897 | <0.01 |
| Abdominoperineal resection | ||||||
| No | Reference | |||||
| Yes | 0.941 | 0.665–1.332 | 0.732 | – | – | – |
| Chemotherapy | ||||||
| No | Reference | |||||
| Yes | 0.351 | 0.300–0.410 | <0.01 | 0.457 | 0.381–0.549 | <0.01 |