Estimating the risks of transfusion-associated acquired immune deficiency syndrome and human immunodeficiency virus infection.

The risk of transfusion-associated acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) has been difficult to estimate because of the long and variable incubation period. Mathematical modeling suggests there may eventually be 2100 cases among persons aged 13 to 65 who received transfusions between 1978 and 1984. An estimated 12,000 living transfusion recipients of all ages from these years are infected with the human immunodeficiency virus, the virus that causes AIDS. Secondary transmission might be prevented by testing and counseling recipients, but the likelihood of infection in any single recipient is small.