Scott R Kegler1, Grant T Baldwin2, Rose A Rudd2, Michael F Ballesteros3. 1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, Division of Analysis, Research, and Practice Integration, 4770 Buford Highway, Atlanta, GA, 30341, USA. skegler@cdc.gov. 2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, Division of Unintentional Injury Prevention, 4770 Buford Highway, Atlanta, GA, 30341, USA. 3. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, Division of Analysis, Research, and Practice Integration, 4770 Buford Highway, Atlanta, GA, 30341, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: During the previous century the average lifespan in the United States (US) increased by over 30 years, with much of this increase attributed to public health initiatives. This report examines further gains that might be achieved through reduced occurrence of injury-related death. METHODS: US life tables and injury death rate data were used to estimate potential increases in life expectancy assuming various reductions in the rate of fatal injuries. Corresponding numbers of deaths potentially averted annually were also estimated; unit (per death) medical and lifetime work loss costs were employed to estimate total costs potentially averted annually. RESULTS: Through elimination of injury as a cause of death, average US life expectancy at birth could be increased by approximately 1.5 years, with notable variations by sex, ethnicity, and race. More conservatively, average life expectancy at birth could be increased by 0.41 years assuming that the national injury death rate could be brought into line with the lowest state-specific rate. Under this more conservative but plausible assumption, an estimated 48,400 injury deaths and $61 billion in medical and work loss costs would be averted annually. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in life expectancy of the magnitude considered in this report are arguably attainable based on long-term historical reductions in the US injury death rate, as well as significant continuing reductions seen in other developed countries. Contemporary evidence-based interventions can play an important role in reducing injury-related deaths, such as those due to drug overdoses and older adult falls, as well as suicides.
BACKGROUND: During the previous century the average lifespan in the United States (US) increased by over 30 years, with much of this increase attributed to public health initiatives. This report examines further gains that might be achieved through reduced occurrence of injury-related death. METHODS: US life tables and injury death rate data were used to estimate potential increases in life expectancy assuming various reductions in the rate of fatal injuries. Corresponding numbers of deaths potentially averted annually were also estimated; unit (per death) medical and lifetime work loss costs were employed to estimate total costs potentially averted annually. RESULTS: Through elimination of injury as a cause of death, average US life expectancy at birth could be increased by approximately 1.5 years, with notable variations by sex, ethnicity, and race. More conservatively, average life expectancy at birth could be increased by 0.41 years assuming that the national injury death rate could be brought into line with the lowest state-specific rate. Under this more conservative but plausible assumption, an estimated 48,400 injury deaths and $61 billion in medical and work loss costs would be averted annually. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in life expectancy of the magnitude considered in this report are arguably attainable based on long-term historical reductions in the US injury death rate, as well as significant continuing reductions seen in other developed countries. Contemporary evidence-based interventions can play an important role in reducing injury-related deaths, such as those due to drug overdoses and older adult falls, as well as suicides.
Entities:
Keywords:
Cost of injury; Injury death; Life expectancy
Authors: Christopher J L Murray; Charles Atkinson; Kavi Bhalla; Gretchen Birbeck; Roy Burstein; David Chou; Robert Dellavalle; Goodarz Danaei; Majid Ezzati; A Fahimi; D Flaxman; Sherine Gabriel; Emmanuela Gakidou; Nicholas Kassebaum; Shahab Khatibzadeh; Stephen Lim; Steven E Lipshultz; Stephanie London; Michael F MacIntyre; A H Mokdad; A Moran; Andrew E Moran; Dariush Mozaffarian; Tasha Murphy; Moshen Naghavi; C Pope; Thomas Roberts; Joshua Salomon; David C Schwebel; Saeid Shahraz; David A Sleet; Jerry Abraham; Mohammed K Ali; Charles Atkinson; David H Bartels; Kavi Bhalla; Gretchen Birbeck; Roy Burstein; Honglei Chen; Michael H Criqui; Eric L Ding; E Ray Dorsey; Beth E Ebel; Majid Ezzati; S Flaxman; A D Flaxman; Diego Gonzalez-Medina; Bridget Grant; Holly Hagan; Howard Hoffman; Nicholas Kassebaum; Shahab Khatibzadeh; Janet L Leasher; John Lin; Steven E Lipshultz; Rafael Lozano; Yuan Lu; Leslie Mallinger; Mary M McDermott; Renata Micha; Ted R Miller; A A Mokdad; A H Mokdad; Dariush Mozaffarian; Mohsen Naghavi; K M Venkat Narayan; Saad B Omer; Pamela M Pelizzari; David Phillips; Dharani Ranganathan; Frederick P Rivara; Thomas Roberts; Uchechukwu Sampson; Ella Sanman; Amir Sapkota; David C Schwebel; Saeid Sharaz; Rupak Shivakoti; Gitanjali M Singh; David Singh; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Jeffrey A Towbin; James D Wilkinson; Azadeh Zabetian; Jerry Abraham; Mohammad K Ali; Miriam Alvardo; Charles Atkinson; Larry M Baddour; Emelia J Benjamin; Kavi Bhalla; Gretchen Birbeck; Ian Bolliger; Roy Burstein; Emily Carnahan; David Chou; Sumeet S Chugh; Aaron Cohen; K Ellicott Colson; Leslie T Cooper; William Couser; Michael H Criqui; Kaustubh C Dabhadkar; Robert P Dellavalle; Daniel Dicker; E Ray Dorsey; Herbert Duber; Beth E Ebel; Rebecca E Engell; Majid Ezzati; David T Felson; Mariel M Finucane; Seth Flaxman; A D Flaxman; Thomas Fleming; Mohammad H Forouzanfar; Greg Freedman; Michael K Freeman; Emmanuela Gakidou; Richard F Gillum; Diego Gonzalez-Medina; Richard Gosselin; Hialy R Gutierrez; Holly Hagan; Rasmus Havmoeller; Howard Hoffman; Kathryn H Jacobsen; Spencer L James; Rashmi Jasrasaria; Sudha Jayarman; Nicole Johns; Nicholas Kassebaum; Shahab Khatibzadeh; Qing Lan; Janet L Leasher; Stephen Lim; Steven E Lipshultz; Stephanie London; Rafael Lozano; Yuan Lu; Leslie Mallinger; Michele Meltzer; George A Mensah; Catherine Michaud; Ted R Miller; Charles Mock; Terrie E Moffitt; A A Mokdad; A H Mokdad; A Moran; Mohsen Naghavi; K M Venkat Narayan; Robert G Nelson; Casey Olives; Saad B Omer; Katrina Ortblad; Bart Ostro; Pamela M Pelizzari; David Phillips; Murugesan Raju; Homie Razavi; Beate Ritz; Thomas Roberts; Ralph L Sacco; Joshua Salomon; Uchechukwu Sampson; David C Schwebel; Saeid Shahraz; Kenji Shibuya; Donald Silberberg; Jasvinder A Singh; Kyle Steenland; Jennifer A Taylor; George D Thurston; Monica S Vavilala; Theo Vos; Gregory R Wagner; Martin A Weinstock; Marc G Weisskopf; Sarah Wulf Journal: JAMA Date: 2013-08-14 Impact factor: 56.272