Is it possible to predict the minimum size of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in the United Kingdom?

A mathematical model of the dynamics of transmission of human immunodeficiency virus within the male homosexual population in the United Kingdom demonstrates that even the minimum size of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in the United Kingdom (based upon the assumption that all transmission ceased at the end of 1986) is difficult to predict. Model predictions are particularly sensitive to assumptions about the distributed incubation period of the disease, differences in frequency and patterns of sexual activity, and the proportion of infected people in whom AIDS later develops. More accurate predictions will depend on the collection of data on the incubation period of the disease, the infectiousness of infected persons, and on the numbers of new sexual partners of each sex per person and the duration of each partnership.