Literature DB >> 1934233

Estimation and projection of adult AIDS cases: a simple epidemiological model.

J Chin1, S K Lwanga.   

Abstract

Many HIV/AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) models have been developed to help our understanding of the dynamics and interrelationships of the determinants of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) spread and/or to develop reliable estimates of the eventual extent of such spread. These models range from very simple to very complex. WHO has developed a simple model for short-term projections of AIDS, details of which are presented here along with results obtained using the model to estimate and project AIDS cases for the USA, sub-Saharan Africa, and south/south-east Asia. WHO has also developed, based on the model described in this paper, a computer program (Epi Model), which will enable the user to easily change the values of any of the variables required by the WHO model.

Entities:  

Keywords:  Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome--changes; Africa; Africa South Of The Sahara; Americas; Asia; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Diseases; Estimation Technics; Hiv Infections--changes; International Agencies; Mathematical Model; Models, Theoretical; North America; Northern America; Organization And Administration; Organizations; Planning; Research Methodology; Southeastern Asia; Southern Asia; Un; United States; Viral Diseases; Who

Mesh:

Year:  1991        PMID: 1934233      PMCID: PMC2393240     

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Bull World Health Organ        ISSN: 0042-9686            Impact factor:   9.408


  10 in total

1.  Estimates of HIV prevalence and projected AIDS cases: summary of a workshop, October 31-November 1, 1989.

Authors: 
Journal:  MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep       Date:  1990-02-23       Impact factor: 17.586

2.  Surveillance of AIDS in the European Community: recent trends and predictions to 1991.

Authors:  A M Downs; R A Ancelle-Park; J B Brunet
Journal:  AIDS       Date:  1990-11       Impact factor: 4.177

Review 3.  Some statistical issues in studies of the epidemiology of AIDS.

Authors:  N P Jewell
Journal:  Stat Med       Date:  1990-12       Impact factor: 2.373

4.  Global estimates of AIDS cases and HIV infections: 1990.

Authors:  J Chin
Journal:  AIDS       Date:  1990       Impact factor: 4.177

5.  Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome: current and future trends.

Authors:  W M Morgan; J W Curran
Journal:  Public Health Rep       Date:  1986 Sep-Oct       Impact factor: 2.792

Review 6.  Review of AIDS and HIV infection: global epidemiology and statistics.

Authors:  P A Sato; J Chin; J M Mann
Journal:  AIDS       Date:  1989       Impact factor: 4.177

Review 7.  Natural history of HIV infection.

Authors:  A R Moss; P Bacchetti
Journal:  AIDS       Date:  1989-02       Impact factor: 4.177

8.  The global epidemiology and projected short-term demographic impact of AIDS.

Authors:  J Chin; S Lwanga; J M Mann
Journal:  Popul Bull UN       Date:  1989

9.  Is it possible to predict the minimum size of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in the United Kingdom?

Authors:  R M Anderson; G F Medley; S P Blythe; A M Johnson
Journal:  Lancet       Date:  1987-05-09       Impact factor: 79.321

Review 10.  AIDS: an international perspective.

Authors:  P Piot; F A Plummer; F S Mhalu; J L Lamboray; J Chin; J M Mann
Journal:  Science       Date:  1988-02-05       Impact factor: 47.728

  10 in total
  11 in total

Review 1.  An introduction to mathematical models in sexually transmitted disease epidemiology.

Authors:  G P Garnett
Journal:  Sex Transm Infect       Date:  2002-02       Impact factor: 3.519

2.  An age- and sex-structured HIV epidemiological model: features and applications.

Authors:  D Low-Beer; R L Stoneburner
Journal:  Bull World Health Organ       Date:  1997       Impact factor: 9.408

3.  More on the cohort-component model of population projection in the context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie matrix representation and new estimates.

Authors:  Jason R Thomas; Samuel J Clark
Journal:  Demogr Res       Date:  2011-07-05

4.  HIV and population dynamics: a general model and maximum-likelihood standards for east Africa.

Authors:  Patrick Heuveline
Journal:  Demography       Date:  2003-05

5.  HIV and AIDS: where is the epidemic going?

Authors:  T E Mertens; D Low-Beer
Journal:  Bull World Health Organ       Date:  1996       Impact factor: 9.408

6.  AIDS and the elderly of Thailand: projecting familial impacts.

Authors:  Kenneth W Wachter; John E Knodel; Mark Vanlandingham
Journal:  Demography       Date:  2002-02

7.  The present and future course of the AIDS epidemic in Côte d'Ivoire.

Authors:  B N Soro; G M Gershy-Damet; A Coulibaly; K Konan; P A Sato
Journal:  Bull World Health Organ       Date:  1992       Impact factor: 9.408

8.  Estimates of age-specific reductions in HIV prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian melding estimation and probabilistic population forecast with an HIV-enabled cohort component projection model.

Authors:  Samuel J Clark; Jason R Thomas; Le Bao
Journal:  Demogr Res       Date:  2012-12-12

9.  Comparison of projected and actual outcomes of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malawi, 1990-2000.

Authors:  Suja S Rajan; David C Sokal
Journal:  PLoS One       Date:  2009-08-27       Impact factor: 3.240

10.  A new infectious disease model for estimating and projecting HIV/AIDS epidemics.

Authors:  Le Bao
Journal:  Sex Transm Infect       Date:  2012-10-30       Impact factor: 3.519

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