Continuity for children after guardianship versus adoption with kin: Approximating the right counterfactual.

Over the past two decades there has been a rapid increase in the number of children and youth living in guardianship and adoptive homes who were previously in foster care. Further, previous studies compared outcomes for children in guardianship homes to those for children in adoptive homes, despite the fact that many factors likely affect the selection of foster youth into different types of permanent placements. This study examined two counterfactuals for guardianship as a permanent placement type: adoption only and adoption or long-term-fostercare (A+LTFC). Longitudinal outcomes were tracked for children who exited foster care with relatives through guardianship (N=4,884) or adoption (N=12,163), as well as children in long-term foster care with relatives (N=4,840). Propensity scores were used to match children on key indicators. In the matched sample of guardianship versus adoption cases only, children who exited to guardianship were more likely to experience discontinuity than children who exited through adoption, 11% vs. 6% respectively. However, when guardianship was compared to the combination of adoption or long-term foster care, children in guardianship experienced the same proportion of discontinuity, 11% vs. 11% respectively. These results suggest that simply matching guardianship to adoption without taking into account LTFC may be the wrong way to estimate the "what if" counterfactual if children were not discharged to guardianship. Findings also support the use of guardianship as a potential solution for children in LTFC whose caregivers are not planning to adopt.