Hessel Peters-Sengers1, Martin B A Heemskerk2, Ronald B Geskus3,4, Jesper Kers5, Jaap J Homan van der Heide1, Stefan P Berger6, Frederike J Bemelman1. 1. Department of Nephrology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands. 2. Dutch Transplant Foundation, Leiden, the Netherlands. 3. Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom. 4. Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. 5. Department of Pathology, Academic Medical Center University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands. 6. Department of Nephrology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The prognostic Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI)-developed and internally validated in the United States-is a widely used tool to predict transplant outcome of a deceased donor kidney. The KDRI is currently used for longevity matching between donors and recipients in the United States. METHODS: We aimed to externally validate the KDRIdonor-only and KDRIfull as proposed by Rao et al (2009). KDRIdonor-only consist of 10 donor factors, and KDRIfull with an additional 4 transplant factors. We used the Dutch Organ Transplantation Registry to include 3201 adult recipients transplanted from 2002 to 2012. RESULTS: The median Dutch KDRI was 1.21 and comparable with the year 2012 in the United States (median of 1.24). The calibration-slope was 0.98 and 0.96 for the KDRIfull and KDRIdonor-only, respectively, indicating that predictions of graft failure were on average similar. The discriminative ability (Harrell C) of the KDRIfull and the KDRIdonor-only at 5 years was 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62-0.64), and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.61-0.63), respectively. We found misspecification of 3 KDRI factors: age (P = 0.002), weight (P = 0.017), and cold ischemia time (P < 0.001). Adding the use of inotropic drugs before donation (P = 0.040) and the interaction between circulatory-death donor kidneys and prolonged cold ischemic time (>24 hours vs 12 hours; P = 0.059) could improve predictive ability. CONCLUSIONS: The KDRI performs equal in the Dutch population. Discriminative ability of the KDRI indicates limited clinical use for adequate individualized decisions. An updated KDRI may contribute to a standardized policy meeting the growing demand of donor kidneys in the Eurotransplant region.
BACKGROUND: The prognostic Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI)-developed and internally validated in the United States-is a widely used tool to predict transplant outcome of a deceased donor kidney. The KDRI is currently used for longevity matching between donors and recipients in the United States. METHODS: We aimed to externally validate the KDRIdonor-only and KDRIfull as proposed by Rao et al (2009). KDRIdonor-only consist of 10 donor factors, and KDRIfull with an additional 4 transplant factors. We used the Dutch Organ Transplantation Registry to include 3201 adult recipients transplanted from 2002 to 2012. RESULTS: The median Dutch KDRI was 1.21 and comparable with the year 2012 in the United States (median of 1.24). The calibration-slope was 0.98 and 0.96 for the KDRIfull and KDRIdonor-only, respectively, indicating that predictions of graft failure were on average similar. The discriminative ability (Harrell C) of the KDRIfull and the KDRIdonor-only at 5 years was 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62-0.64), and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.61-0.63), respectively. We found misspecification of 3 KDRI factors: age (P = 0.002), weight (P = 0.017), and cold ischemia time (P < 0.001). Adding the use of inotropic drugs before donation (P = 0.040) and the interaction between circulatory-death donor kidneys and prolonged cold ischemic time (>24 hours vs 12 hours; P = 0.059) could improve predictive ability. CONCLUSIONS: The KDRI performs equal in the Dutch population. Discriminative ability of the KDRI indicates limited clinical use for adequate individualized decisions. An updated KDRI may contribute to a standardized policy meeting the growing demand of donor kidneys in the Eurotransplant region.
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