Harshpal Singh Sachdev1, Sikha Sinha, Neha Sareen, R M Pandey, Umesh Kapil. 1. Department of Pediatrics and Clinical Epidemiology, Sitaram Bhartia Institute of Science and Research; and Departments of *Gastroenterology and Human Nutrition, and #Biostatistics, All India Institute of Medical Sciences; New Delhi, India. Correspondence to: Dr Harshpal Singh Sachdev, Senior Consultant, Department of Pediatrics and Clinical Epidemiology, Sitaram Bhartia Institute of Science and Research, New Delhi, India. hpssachdev@gmail.com.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate recovery and survival of severely wasted children without community management of acute malnutrition programme. DESIGN: Single time point follow-up (24th December 2013 - 2nd April, 2014) of severely wasted children identified in a community-based cross-sectional survey (September 2012 - October 2013). SETTING: Rural Meerut District, Uttar Pradesh, India. PARTICIPANTS: 409 severely wasted (WHO weight-for-height <-3Z), 6- to 59-month-old children. OUTCOME MEASURES: Survival and recovery (weight-for-height ≥-2Z). RESULTS: Median (IQR) follow-up contact duration was 7.4 (6.6, 10.1) months. Among 11 deaths, there were 5 (case-fatality 1.2%), 6 (1.5%), 8 (2.0%) and 10 (2.4%) events within 1, 1.5, 4 and 6 months of enrolment, respectively. Ten deaths occurred in children aged between 6 and 24 months. Younger age (P=0.04), poorer household-head occupation (P=0.04) and lower enrolment anthropometry (any variable; P<0.001) were significant predictors of mortality. Children below 18 months of age had higher adjusted mortality risk (HR 4.7; 95% CI 0.95, 22.51; P=0.053). At follow-up, 30% of survivors were still severely wasted, 39% were moderately wasted (weight-for-height -3 to <-2Z) and 31% had recovered spontaneously. Younger age (P<0.001), female gender (P=0.04) and longer follow-up duration (P=0.003) were significant independent predictors of recovery. The adjusted OR (95% CI) for recovery <24 months was 2.81 (1.70, 4.65). CONCLUSION: Without community management of acute malnutrition in rural Meerut District, severely wasted children had low (1.2%-2.7%) case-fatality with long-term spontaneous recovery of around 25-30%.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate recovery and survival of severely wasted children without community management of acute malnutrition programme. DESIGN: Single time point follow-up (24th December 2013 - 2nd April, 2014) of severely wasted children identified in a community-based cross-sectional survey (September 2012 - October 2013). SETTING: Rural Meerut District, Uttar Pradesh, India. PARTICIPANTS: 409 severely wasted (WHO weight-for-height <-3Z), 6- to 59-month-old children. OUTCOME MEASURES: Survival and recovery (weight-for-height ≥-2Z). RESULTS: Median (IQR) follow-up contact duration was 7.4 (6.6, 10.1) months. Among 11 deaths, there were 5 (case-fatality 1.2%), 6 (1.5%), 8 (2.0%) and 10 (2.4%) events within 1, 1.5, 4 and 6 months of enrolment, respectively. Ten deaths occurred in children aged between 6 and 24 months. Younger age (P=0.04), poorer household-head occupation (P=0.04) and lower enrolment anthropometry (any variable; P<0.001) were significant predictors of mortality. Children below 18 months of age had higher adjusted mortality risk (HR 4.7; 95% CI 0.95, 22.51; P=0.053). At follow-up, 30% of survivors were still severely wasted, 39% were moderately wasted (weight-for-height -3 to <-2Z) and 31% had recovered spontaneously. Younger age (P<0.001), female gender (P=0.04) and longer follow-up duration (P=0.003) were significant independent predictors of recovery. The adjusted OR (95% CI) for recovery <24 months was 2.81 (1.70, 4.65). CONCLUSION: Without community management of acute malnutrition in rural Meerut District, severely wasted children had low (1.2%-2.7%) case-fatality with long-term spontaneous recovery of around 25-30%.