Disruption of predicted dengue virus type 3 major outbreak cycle coincided with switching of the dominant circulating virus genotype.

Dengue is hyperendemic in most of Southeast Asia. In this region, all four dengue virus serotypes are persistently present. Major dengue outbreak cycle occurs in a cyclical pattern involving the different dengue virus serotypes. In Malaysia, since the 1980s, the major outbreak cycles have involved dengue virus type 3 (DENV3), dengue virus type 1 (DENV1) and dengue virus type 2 (DENV2), occurring in that order (DENV3/DENV1/DENV2). Only limited information on the DENV3 cycles, however, have been described. In the current study, we examined the major outbreak cycle involving DENV3 using data from 1985 to 2016. We examined the genetic diversity of DENV3 isolates obtained during the period when DENV3 was the dominant serotype and during the inter-dominant transmission period. Results obtained suggest that the typical DENV3/DENV1/DENV2 cyclical outbreak cycle in Malaysia has recently been disrupted. The last recorded major outbreak cycle involving DENV3 occurred in 2002, and the expected major outbreak cycle involving DENV3 in 2006-2012 did not materialize. DENV genome analyses revealed that DENV3 genotype II (DENV3/II) was the predominant DENV3 genotype (67%-100%) recovered between 1987 and 2002. DENV3 genotype I (DENV3/I) emerged in 2002 followed by the introduction of DENV3 genotype III (DENV3/III) in 2008. These newly emerged DENV3 genotypes replaced DENV3/II, but there was no major upsurge of DENV3 cases that accompanied the emergence of these viruses. DENV3 remained in the background of DENV1 and DENV2 until now. Virus genome sequence analysis suggested that intrinsic differences within the different dengue virus genotypes could have influenced the transmission efficiency of DENV3. Further studies and continuous monitoring of the virus are needed for better understanding of the DENV transmission dynamics in hyperendemic regions.