Time-dependent risk of seizures in critically ill patients on continuous electroencephalogram.

OBJECTIVE: Find the optimal continuous electroencephalographic (CEEG) monitoring duration for seizure detection in critically ill patients.
METHODS: We analyzed prospective data from 665 consecutive CEEGs, including clinical factors and time-to-event emergence of electroencephalographic (EEG) findings over 72 hours. Clinical factors were selected using logistic regression. EEG risk factors were selected a priori. Clinical factors were used for baseline (pre-EEG) risk. EEG findings were used for the creation of a multistate survival model with 3 states (entry, EEG risk, and seizure). EEG risk state is defined by emergence of epileptiform patterns.
RESULTS: The clinical variables of greatest predictive value were coma (31% had seizures; odds ratio [OR] = 1.8, p < 0.01) and history of seizures, either remotely or related to acute illness (34% had seizures; OR = 3.0, p < 0.001). If there were no epileptiform findings on EEG, the risk of seizures within 72 hours was between 9% (no clinical risk factors) and 36% (coma and history of seizures). If epileptiform findings developed, the seizure incidence was between 18% (no clinical risk factors) and 64% (coma and history of seizures). In the absence of epileptiform EEG abnormalities, the duration of monitoring needed for seizure risk of <5% was between 0.4 hours (for patients who are not comatose and had no prior seizure) and 16.4 hours (comatose and prior seizure).
INTERPRETATION: The initial risk of seizures on CEEG is dependent on history of prior seizures and presence of coma. The risk of developing seizures on CEEG decays to <5% by 24 hours if no epileptiform EEG abnormalities emerge, independent of initial clinical risk factors. Ann Neurol 2017;82:177-185.