Casey M Rebholz1, Lesley A Inker2, Yuan Chen3, Menglu Liang4, Meredith C Foster2, John H Eckfeldt5, Paul L Kimmel6, Ramachandran S Vasan7, Harold I Feldman8, Mark J Sarnak2, Chi-Yuan Hsu9, Andrew S Levey2, Josef Coresh4. 1. Department of Epidemiology and Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology, and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD. Electronic address: crebhol1@jhu.edu. 2. William B. Schwartz Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA. 3. Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY. 4. Department of Epidemiology and Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology, and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD. 5. Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Minnesota School of Medicine, Minneapolis, MN. 6. National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD. 7. Section of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA; Section of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA. 8. Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA; Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA. 9. Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Using change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on creatinine concentration as a surrogate outcome in clinical trials of chronic kidney disease has been proposed. Risk for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and all-cause mortality associated with change in concentrations of other filtration markers has not been studied in chronic kidney disease populations. STUDY DESIGN: Observational analysis of 2 clinical trials. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Participants in the MDRD (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease; n=317) Study and AASK (African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension; n=373). PREDICTORS: Creatinine, cystatin C, β-trace protein (BTP), and β2-microglobulin (B2M) were measured in serum samples collected at the 12- and 24-month follow-up visits, along with measured GFR (mGFR) at these time points. OUTCOMES: ESRD and all-cause mortality. MEASUREMENTS: Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% CIs for ESRD and all-cause mortality during long-term follow-up (10-16 years) per 30% decline in mGFR or eGFR for each filtration marker and the average of all 4 markers. RESULTS: 1-year decline in mGFR, eGFRcr, eGFRBTP, and the average of the 4 filtration markers was significantly associated with increased risk for incident ESRD in both studies (all P≤0.02). Compared to mGFR, only decline in eGFRBTP was statistically significantly more strongly associated with ESRD risk in both studies (both P≤0.03). Decline in eGFRcr, but not mGFR or the other filtration markers, was significantly associated with risk for all-cause mortality in AASK only (incidence rate ratio per 30% decline, 4.17; 95% CI, 1.78-9.74; P<0.001), but this association was not significantly different from decline in mGFR (P=0.2). LIMITATIONS: Small sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Declines in mGFR, eGFRcr, eGFRBTP, and the average of 4 filtration markers (creatinine, cystatin C, BTP, and B2M) were consistently associated with progression to ESRD.
BACKGROUND: Using change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on creatinine concentration as a surrogate outcome in clinical trials of chronic kidney disease has been proposed. Risk for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and all-cause mortality associated with change in concentrations of other filtration markers has not been studied in chronic kidney disease populations. STUDY DESIGN: Observational analysis of 2 clinical trials. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Participants in the MDRD (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease; n=317) Study and AASK (African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension; n=373). PREDICTORS: Creatinine, cystatin C, β-trace protein (BTP), and β2-microglobulin (B2M) were measured in serum samples collected at the 12- and 24-month follow-up visits, along with measured GFR (mGFR) at these time points. OUTCOMES: ESRD and all-cause mortality. MEASUREMENTS: Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% CIs for ESRD and all-cause mortality during long-term follow-up (10-16 years) per 30% decline in mGFR or eGFR for each filtration marker and the average of all 4 markers. RESULTS: 1-year decline in mGFR, eGFRcr, eGFRBTP, and the average of the 4 filtration markers was significantly associated with increased risk for incident ESRD in both studies (all P≤0.02). Compared to mGFR, only decline in eGFRBTP was statistically significantly more strongly associated with ESRD risk in both studies (both P≤0.03). Decline in eGFRcr, but not mGFR or the other filtration markers, was significantly associated with risk for all-cause mortality in AASK only (incidence rate ratio per 30% decline, 4.17; 95% CI, 1.78-9.74; P<0.001), but this association was not significantly different from decline in mGFR (P=0.2). LIMITATIONS: Small sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Declines in mGFR, eGFRcr, eGFRBTP, and the average of 4 filtration markers (creatinine, cystatin C, BTP, and B2M) were consistently associated with progression to ESRD.
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