Eve B Carlson1, Patrick A Palmieri2, David A Spain3. 1. National Center for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, VA Palo Alto Health Care System, 795 Willow Rd., Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA; Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University School of Medicine, USA. Electronic address: eve.carlson@va.gov. 2. Center for the Treatment and Study of Traumatic Stress, Summa Health System - St. Thomas Hospital, Ambulatory Building, Suite 420, 444 North Main Street, Akron, OH 44310, USA. Electronic address: PalmierP@summahealth.org. 3. Department of Surgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford University, 300 Pasteur Dr, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. Electronic address: dspain@stanford.edu.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: We examined data from a prospective study of risk factors that increase vulnerability or resilience, exacerbate distress, or foster recovery to determine whether risk factors accurately predict which individuals will later have high posttraumatic (PT) symptom levels and whether brief measures of risk factors also accurately predict later symptom elevations. METHOD: Using data from 129 adults exposed to traumatic injury of self or a loved one, we conducted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses of 14 risk factors assessed by full-length measures, determined optimal cutoff scores, and calculated predictive performance for the nine that were most predictive. For five risk factors, we identified sets of items that accounted for 90% of variance in total scores and calculated predictive performance for sets of brief risk measures. RESULTS: A set of nine risk factors assessed by full measures identified 89% of those who later had elevated PT symptoms (sensitivity) and 78% of those who did not (specificity). A set of four brief risk factor measures assessed soon after injury identified 86% of those who later had elevated PT symptoms and 72% of those who did not. CONCLUSIONS: Use of sets of brief risk factor measures shows promise of accurate prediction of PT psychological disorder and probable PTSD or depression. Replication of predictive accuracy is needed in a new and larger sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.
OBJECTIVE: We examined data from a prospective study of risk factors that increase vulnerability or resilience, exacerbate distress, or foster recovery to determine whether risk factors accurately predict which individuals will later have high posttraumatic (PT) symptom levels and whether brief measures of risk factors also accurately predict later symptom elevations. METHOD: Using data from 129 adults exposed to traumatic injury of self or a loved one, we conducted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses of 14 risk factors assessed by full-length measures, determined optimal cutoff scores, and calculated predictive performance for the nine that were most predictive. For five risk factors, we identified sets of items that accounted for 90% of variance in total scores and calculated predictive performance for sets of brief risk measures. RESULTS: A set of nine risk factors assessed by full measures identified 89% of those who later had elevated PT symptoms (sensitivity) and 78% of those who did not (specificity). A set of four brief risk factor measures assessed soon after injury identified 86% of those who later had elevated PT symptoms and 72% of those who did not. CONCLUSIONS: Use of sets of brief risk factor measures shows promise of accurate prediction of PT psychological disorder and probable PTSD or depression. Replication of predictive accuracy is needed in a new and larger sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Authors: Douglas Zatzick; Gregory J Jurkovich; Frederick P Rivara; Jin Wang; Ming-Yu Fan; Jutta Joesch; Ellen Mackenzie Journal: Ann Surg Date: 2008-09 Impact factor: 12.969
Authors: Isaac R Galatzer-Levy; Karen-Inge Karstoft; Alexander Statnikov; Arieh Y Shalev Journal: J Psychiatr Res Date: 2014-09-16 Impact factor: 4.791
Authors: Tim Kok; Hein A de Haan; Helena J W van der Velden; Margreet van der Meer; Lisa M Najavits; Cor A J de Jong Journal: Addict Behav Date: 2012-10-31 Impact factor: 3.913
Authors: Eric B Elbogen; Sally C Johnson; H Ryan Wagner; Connor Sullivan; Casey T Taft; Jean C Beckham Journal: Br J Psychiatry Date: 2014-02-27 Impact factor: 9.319
Authors: Joseph A Boscarino; H Lester Kirchner; Stuart N Hoffman; Jennifer Sartorius; Richard E Adams; Charles R Figley Journal: Gen Hosp Psychiatry Date: 2011-07-20 Impact factor: 3.238
Authors: Meaghan L O'Donnell; Mark C Creamer; Ruth Parslow; Peter Elliott; Alexander C N Holmes; Steven Ellen; Rodney Judson; Alexander C McFarlane; Derrick Silove; Richard A Bryant Journal: J Consult Clin Psychol Date: 2008-12
Authors: Candace E Huffmaster; Ashley Y Williams; Yann-Leei L Lee; C Caleb Butts; Nathan M Polite; Krista R Mehari; Jon D Simmons Journal: JAMA Surg Date: 2022-09-21 Impact factor: 16.681
Authors: Lalitha Iyadurai; Renée M Visser; Alex Lau-Zhu; Kate Porcheret; Antje Horsch; Emily A Holmes; Ella L James Journal: Clin Psychol Rev Date: 2018-08-23