| Literature DB >> 28515198 |
Simon de Lusignan1, Gaël Dos Santos2, Ana Correa1, François Haguinet2, Ivelina Yonova1, Florence Lair2, Rachel Byford1, Filipa Ferreira1, Karen Stuttard2, Tom Chan1.
Abstract
AIM: To pilot enhanced safety surveillance of seasonal influenza vaccine meeting the European Medicines Agency (EMA) requirement to rapidly detect a significant increase in the frequency or severity of adverse events of interest (AEIs), which may indicate risk from the new season's vaccine. STUDYEntities:
Keywords: Adverse events; BIOTECHNOLOGY & BIOINFORMATICS; EPIDEMIOLOGY; PREVENTIVE MEDICINE; PRIMARY CARE; Public health
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2017 PMID: 28515198 PMCID: PMC5541341 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-015469
Source DB: PubMed Journal: BMJ Open ISSN: 2044-6055 Impact factor: 2.692
CIs, RSE and probability to observe at least one AEI according to expected probabilities of occurrence of AEI
| Expected | Vaccine coverage (%) | Vaccinated subjects | Subjects with events | Expected proportion of subjects with ≥1 AEI reported (%) | Lower | Upper | Probability to observe | Associated RSE (%) |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 2 000 | 20.00 | 19.2 | 20.8 | 100.00 | 2.0 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 1500 | 15.00 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 100.00 | 2.4 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 1 000 | 10.00 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 100.00 | 3.0 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 500 | 5.00 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 100.00 | 4.4 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 400 | 4.00 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 100.00 | 4.9 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 200 | 2.00 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 100.00 | 7.0 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 100 | 1.00 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 100.00 | 9.9 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 10 | 0.10 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 99.95 | 31.6 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 9 | 0.09 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 99.88 | 33.3 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 8 | 0.08 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 99.70 | 35.3 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 7 | 0.07 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 99.27 | 37.8 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 6 | 0.06 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 98.27 | 40.8 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 5 | 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 95.96 | 44.7 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 90.85 | 50.0 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 80.09 | 57.7 |
| 50 000 | 2 | 10 000 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 59.40 | 70.7 |
| 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 26.42 | 100.0 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 250 | 5.00 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 100.00 | 6.2 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 200 | 4.00 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 100.00 | 6.9 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 100 | 2.00 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 100.00 | 9.9 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 50 | 1.00 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 100.00 | 14.1 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 5 | 0.10 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 95.96 | 44.7 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 4.5 | 0.09 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 93.90 | 47.1 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 4 | 0.08 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 90.85 | 50.0 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 3.5 | 0.07 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 86.42 | 53.4 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 80.09 | 57.7 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 2.5 | 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 71.28 | 63.2 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 59.40 | 70.7 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 1.5 | 0.03 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 44.22 | 81.6 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 26.42 | 100.0 |
| 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 0.5 | 0.01 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 9.02 | 141.4 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 125 | 5.00 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 100.00 | 8.7 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 100 | 4.00 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 100.00 | 9.8 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 50 | 2.00 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 100.00 | 14.0 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 25 | 1.00 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 100.00 | 19.9 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 12.5 | 0.50 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 100.00 | 28.2 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 2.5 | 0.10 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 71.29 | 63.2 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 2.25 | 0.09 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 65.76 | 66.6 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 59.41 | 70.7 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 1.75 | 0.07 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 52.22 | 75.6 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 1.5 | 0.06 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 44.22 | 81.6 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 1.25 | 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 35.54 | 89.4 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 26.42 | 100.0 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 0.75 | 0.03 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 17.33 | 115.5 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 0.5 | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 9.02 | 141.4 |
| 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 0.25 | 0.01 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.65 | 200.0 |
AEI, adverse event of interest; RSE, relative SE.
CIs RSE cumulative probability to observe at least one AEI by week associated with a probability of occurrence of event of 1%
| Week | Expected | Cumulative vaccine coverage after 14 weeks (%) | Cumulative no of vaccinated subjects | Cumulative no of subjects reported ≥1 | Average proportion of AEI reported (%) | Lower | Upper | Cumulative | Associated RSE (%) |
| 1 | 50 000 | 20 | 714 | 7 | 1.00 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 99.37 | 37.2 |
| 2 | 50 000 | 20 | 1 428 | 14 | 1.00 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 100.00 | 26.3 |
| 3 | 50 000 | 20 | 2 142 | 21 | 1.00 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 100.00 | 21.5 |
| 4 | 50 000 | 20 | 2 857 | 28 | 1.00 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 100.00 | 18.6 |
| 5 | 50 000 | 20 | 3 571 | 35 | 1.00 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 100.00 | 16.7 |
| 6 | 50 000 | 20 | 4 285 | 42 | 1.00 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 100.00 | 15.2 |
| 7 | 50 000 | 20 | 5 000 | 50 | 1.00 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 100.00 | 14.1 |
| 8 | 50 000 | 20 | 5 714 | 57 | 1.00 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 100.00 | 13.2 |
| 9 | 50 000 | 20 | 6 428 | 64 | 1.00 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 100.00 | 12.4 |
| 10 | 50 000 | 20 | 7 142 | 71 | 1.00 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 100.00 | 11.8 |
| 11 | 50 000 | 20 | 7 857 | 78 | 1.00 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 100.00 | 11.2 |
| 12 | 50 000 | 20 | 8 571 | 85 | 1.00 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 100.00 | 10.7 |
| 13 | 50 000 | 20 | 9 285 | 92 | 1.00 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 100.00 | 10.3 |
| 14 | 50 000 | 20 | 10 000 | 100 | 1.00 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 100.00 | 9.9 |
| 1 | 50 000 | 10 | 357 | 3 | 1.00 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 87.26 | 52.7 |
| 2 | 50 000 | 10 | 714 | 7 | 1.00 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 99.37 | 37.2 |
| 3 | 50 000 | 10 | 1 071 | 10 | 1.00 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 99.98 | 30.4 |
| 4 | 50 000 | 10 | 1 428 | 14 | 1.00 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 10000 | 26.3 |
| 5 | 50 000 | 10 | 1 785 | 17 | 1.00 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 100.00 | 23.6 |
| 6 | 50 000 | 10 | 2 142 | 21 | 1.00 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 100.00 | 21.5 |
| 7 | 50 000 | 10 | 2 500 | 25 | 1.00 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 100.00 | 19.9 |
| 8 | 50 000 | 10 | 2 857 | 28 | 1.00 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 100.00 | 18.6 |
| 9 | 50 000 | 10 | 3 214 | 32 | 1.00 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 100.00 | 17.6 |
| 10 | 50 000 | 10 | 3 571 | 35 | 1.00 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 100.00 | 16.7 |
| 11 | 50 000 | 10 | 3 928 | 39 | 1.00 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 100.00 | 15.9 |
| 12 | 50 000 | 10 | 4 285 | 42 | 1.00 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 100.00 | 15.2 |
| 13 | 50 000 | 10 | 4 642 | 46 | 1.00 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 100.00 | 14.6 |
| 14 | 50 000 | 10 | 5 000 | 50 | 1.00 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 100.00 | 14.1 |
| 1 | 50 000 | 5 | 178 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 53.24 | 74.6 |
| 2 | 50 000 | 5 | 357 | 3 | 1.00 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 87.26 | 52.7 |
| 3 | 50 000 | 5 | 535 | 5 | 1.00 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 97.04 | 43.0 |
| 4 | 50 000 | 5 | 714 | 7 | 1.00 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 99.37 | 37.2 |
| 5 | 50 000 | 5 | 892 | 8 | 1.00 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 99.87 | 33.3 |
| 6 | 50 000 | 5 | 1 071 | 10 | 1.00 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 99.98 | 30.4 |
| 7 | 50 000 | 5 | 1 250 | 12 | 1.00 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 100.00 | 28.1 |
| 8 | 50 000 | 5 | 1 428 | 14 | 1.00 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 100.00 | 26.3 |
| 9 | 50 000 | 5 | 1 607 | 16 | 1.00 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 100.00 | 24.8 |
| 10 | 50 000 | 5 | 1 785 | 17 | 1.00 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 100.00 | 23.6 |
| 11 | 50 000 | 5 | 1 964 | 19 | 1.00 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 100.00 | 22.5 |
| 12 | 50 000 | 5 | 2 142 | 21 | 1.00 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 100.00 | 21.5 |
| 13 | 50 000 | 5 | 2 321 | 23 | 1.00 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 100.00 | 20.7 |
| 14 | 50 000 | 5 | 2 500 | 25 | 1.00 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 100.00 | 19.9 |
AEI, adverse event of interest; RSE, relative SE.
Figure 1Data capture flowchart : patient receiving influenza vaccination in the surgery.