Sérgio Barra1, Rui Providência2,3,4, Catarina Faustino3, Luís Paiva3, Andreia Fernandes3, António Leitão Marques3. 1. Cardiology Department, Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Papworth Everard,Cambridge CB23 3RE, UK. 2. Cardiology Department, Clinique Pasteur,Toulouse,France. 3. Cardiology Department, Coimbra's Hospital and University Centre, Coimbra,Portugal. 4. Cardiology Department, Faculty of Medicine, University of Coimbra,Coimbra,Portugal.
Abstract
Background: Renal dysfunction is a strong predictor of adverse events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The Cokcroft-Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations are available for estimating the glomerular filtration rate (GFR). No comparisons between these equations have yet been performed in patients with non-valvular AF concerning their mid-term prognostic performance. Methods: Cross-sectional study of 555 consecutive patients with non-valvular AF undergoing transesophageal echocardiogram. We tested the prognostic performance of the aforementioned GFR estimation formulae, namely their ability to predict all-cause mortality (primary endpoint) and major cardiac adverse or ischemic cerebrovascular events (secondary endpoints) during an average follow-up of 24 months. Results: Regarding the primary endpoint, Cockcroft-Gault (AUC=0.749±0.028) was superior to both MDRD (AUC=0.624±0.039) and CKD-EPI (AUC=0.641±0.034) [p<0.001 both comparisons] while CKD-EPI was superior to MDRD (p=0.011). Cockcroft-Gault was marginally superior to both MDRD (AUC=0.673±0.049 vs. AUC=0.586±0.054, p=0.041) and CKD-EPI (AUC=0.673±0.049 vs. AUC=0.604±0.054, p=0.063) in the prediction of ischemic cerebrovascular events, while no difference was found between CKD-EPI and MDRD. Concerning AUC for prediction of MACE, Cockcroft-Gault was superior to MDRD (p=0.009) and CKD-EPI (p=0.012), while CKD-EPI was similar to MDRD (p=0.215). Multivariate predictive models consistently included Cockcroft-Gault formula along with CHADS2, excluding the other two equations. Measures of reclassification revealed a significant improvement in risk stratification for all studied endpoints with Cockcroft-Gault instead of CKD-EPI. Conclusions: In patients with non-valvular AF, the Cockcroft-Gault more appropriately classified individuals with respect to risk of all-cause mortality, ischaemic cerebrovascular event and major adverse cardiac event.
Background: Renal dysfunction is a strong predictor of adverse events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The Cokcroft-Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations are available for estimating the glomerular filtration rate (GFR). No comparisons between these equations have yet been performed in patients with non-valvular AF concerning their mid-term prognostic performance. Methods: Cross-sectional study of 555 consecutive patients with non-valvular AF undergoing transesophageal echocardiogram. We tested the prognostic performance of the aforementioned GFR estimation formulae, namely their ability to predict all-cause mortality (primary endpoint) and major cardiac adverse or ischemic cerebrovascular events (secondary endpoints) during an average follow-up of 24 months. Results: Regarding the primary endpoint, Cockcroft-Gault (AUC=0.749±0.028) was superior to both MDRD (AUC=0.624±0.039) and CKD-EPI (AUC=0.641±0.034) [p<0.001 both comparisons] while CKD-EPI was superior to MDRD (p=0.011). Cockcroft-Gault was marginally superior to both MDRD (AUC=0.673±0.049 vs. AUC=0.586±0.054, p=0.041) and CKD-EPI (AUC=0.673±0.049 vs. AUC=0.604±0.054, p=0.063) in the prediction of ischemic cerebrovascular events, while no difference was found between CKD-EPI and MDRD. Concerning AUC for prediction of MACE, Cockcroft-Gault was superior to MDRD (p=0.009) and CKD-EPI (p=0.012), while CKD-EPI was similar to MDRD (p=0.215). Multivariate predictive models consistently included Cockcroft-Gault formula along with CHADS2, excluding the other two equations. Measures of reclassification revealed a significant improvement in risk stratification for all studied endpoints with Cockcroft-Gault instead of CKD-EPI. Conclusions: In patients with non-valvular AF, the Cockcroft-Gault more appropriately classified individuals with respect to risk of all-cause mortality, ischaemic cerebrovascular event and major adverse cardiac event.
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