M Bencivenga1, G Verlato2, D-S Han3, D Marrelli4, F Roviello4, H-K Yang5, G de Manzoni1. 1. Division of General and Upper Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Verona, Verona, Italy. 2. Unit of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Department of Diagnostics and Public Health, University of Verona, Verona, Italy. 3. Department of Surgery, Konkuk University Medical Centre, Seoul, Korea. 4. Section of General Surgery and Surgical Oncology, Translational Research Laboratory, Department of Human Pathology and Oncology, University of Siena, Siena, Italy. 5. Department of Surgery, Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prognostic models from Korea and Italy have been developed that predict overall survival and cancer recurrence respectively after radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to validate the two models in independent patient cohorts, and to evaluate which factors may explain differences in prognosis between Korean and Italian patients with gastric cancer. METHODS: Patients who underwent radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer between January 2000 and December 2004 at Seoul National University Hospital and at eight centres in Italy were included. Discrimination of the models was tested with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calculation of area under the curve (AUC). Calibration was evaluated by plotting actual survival probability against predicted survival probability for the Korean nomogram, and actual against predicted risk of recurrence for the Italian score. RESULTS: Some 2867 and 940 patients from Korea and Italy respectively were included. The Korean nomogram achieved good discrimination in the Italian cohort (AUC 0·80, 95 per cent c.i. 0·77 to 0·83), and the Italian model performed well in the Korean cohort (AUC 0·87, 0·85 to 0·89). The Korean nomogram also achieved good calibration, but this was not seen for the Italian model. Multivariable analyses confirmed that Italian ethnicity was an independent risk factor for cancer recurrence (odds ratio (OR) 1·72, 1·31 to 2·25; P < 0·001), but not for overall survival (OR 1·20, 0·95 to 1·53; P = 0·130). CONCLUSION: Both prognostic models performed fairly well in independent patient cohorts. Differences in recurrence rates of gastric cancer may be partially explained by ethnicity.
BACKGROUND: Prognostic models from Korea and Italy have been developed that predict overall survival and cancer recurrence respectively after radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to validate the two models in independent patient cohorts, and to evaluate which factors may explain differences in prognosis between Korean and Italian patients with gastric cancer. METHODS:Patients who underwent radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer between January 2000 and December 2004 at Seoul National University Hospital and at eight centres in Italy were included. Discrimination of the models was tested with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calculation of area under the curve (AUC). Calibration was evaluated by plotting actual survival probability against predicted survival probability for the Korean nomogram, and actual against predicted risk of recurrence for the Italian score. RESULTS: Some 2867 and 940 patients from Korea and Italy respectively were included. The Korean nomogram achieved good discrimination in the Italian cohort (AUC 0·80, 95 per cent c.i. 0·77 to 0·83), and the Italian model performed well in the Korean cohort (AUC 0·87, 0·85 to 0·89). The Korean nomogram also achieved good calibration, but this was not seen for the Italian model. Multivariable analyses confirmed that Italian ethnicity was an independent risk factor for cancer recurrence (odds ratio (OR) 1·72, 1·31 to 2·25; P < 0·001), but not for overall survival (OR 1·20, 0·95 to 1·53; P = 0·130). CONCLUSION: Both prognostic models performed fairly well in independent patient cohorts. Differences in recurrence rates of gastric cancer may be partially explained by ethnicity.
Authors: Luca Gianotti; Uberto Fumagalli Romario; Stefano De Pascale; Jacopo Weindelmayer; Valentina Mengardo; Marta Sandini; Andrea Cossu; Paolo Parise; Riccardo Rosati; Lapo Bencini; Andrea Coratti; Giovanni Colombo; Federica Galli; Stefano Rausei; Francesco Casella; Andrea Sansonetti; Dario Maggioni; Andrea Costanzi; Davide P Bernasconi; Giovanni De Manzoni Journal: World J Surg Date: 2019-10 Impact factor: 3.352
Authors: Etsuro Bando; Xinge Ji; Michael W Kattan; Ho Seok Seo; Kyo Young Song; Cho-Hyun Park; Maria Bencivenga; Giovanni de Manzoni; Masanori Terashima Journal: Cancer Med Date: 2020-06-26 Impact factor: 4.452
Authors: J Weindelmayer; V Mengardo; A Veltri; G L Baiocchi; S Giacopuzzi; G Verlato; G de Manzoni Journal: Trials Date: 2021-02-17 Impact factor: 2.279